SPC AC 060025
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible tonight.
...01 Update...
Surface front has advanced across the northern FL Peninsula early
this evening. Weak convection is noted along/behind this boundary,
but the more robust updrafts are now offshore where isolated flashes
of lightning are noted off the GA Coast. Latest diagnostic data does
not appear particularly favorable for deep convection along the wind
shift tonight, and post frontal elevated buoyancy is expected to
remain quite weak. Current thinking is the primary risk for isolated
thunderstorms will be well off the GA/SC Coasts.
..Darrow.. 12/06/2025
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
SPC AC 051650
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move
quickly eastward across the Mid-South on Saturday, and then move
offshore of the Carolinas by early Sunday morning. Upstream, a
midlevel shortwave trough and attendant surface low will move
southeastward from the northern High Plains toward the mid MS
Valley.
Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential
across most of the CONUS on Saturday. Weak convection and possibly
isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across the
FL Peninsula, in the vicinity of a weakening front. Late Saturday
night into early Sunday morning, thunderstorms may develop near the
central Gulf Coast vicinity, north of an offshore front that is
expected to slowly move northward late in the period. Where
thunderstorms occur, generally weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy
are expected to limit organized-severe potential through the period.
..Dean.. 12/05/2025
WUUS02 PTSDY2
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
SPC AC 051904
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
Within a broad, large-scale trough covering much of the
central/eastern CONUS, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move
from the southern Great Plains into the Southeast on Sunday. In
response to this system, some low-level moisture return is possible
into parts of the upper TX coast and southern LA, in advance of an
approaching cold front. However, persistent surface ridging will
tend to keep the richer Gulf moisture mostly suppressed offshore.
Early-day elevated convection will be possible across parts of the
Gulf Coast, to the north of the primary baroclinic zone. Convective
showers may develop later in the day across parts of LA and southern
MS along/ahead of the approaching cold front, though forecast
soundings currently suggest that this convection may not be
sufficiently deep for lightning production.
Farther east, thermodynamic profiles may become at least marginally
supportive of thunderstorm development across parts of the FL
Peninsula and Keys. Isolated diurnal storm development cannot be
ruled out near any sea breeze boundaries and a remnant baroclinic
zone across the peninsula, though large-scale forcing will be
limited. Late in the period, thunderstorms over the Gulf may
approach parts of the FL Panhandle and Keys. While some increase in
deep-layer shear is possible with time, generally weak lapse rates
and modest buoyancy are currently expected to limit the
organized-severe threat.
..Dean.. 12/05/2025
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
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