Mesoscale Discussion 0039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern Oklahoma...Central and Northern
Arkansas.

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 240718Z - 241115Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall, with rates up to 1 inch per hour, are
expected to develop from parts of far eastern Oklahoma eastward
across much of central and northern Arkansas over the next several
hours. The snow should be mixed with sleet over parts of central
Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough
in the western U.S., with a belt of strong zonal westerly flow over
much of the central and eastern U.S. Lift is currently maximized
over the Ark-La-Tex and southern Ozarks, where a shortwave trough
appears to moving through the flow, and the right exit region of an
expansive mid-level jet is located. Within this zone, radar shows a
large area winter precipitation, which is organized into an
east-to-west band. This band is being supported by strong lift
associated with the northern edge of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet.
As the low-level jet shifts eastward across south-central Arkansas
over the next 3 to 6 hours, isentropic lift will become maximized in
parts of central and northern Arkansas. Snowfall rates are expected
to peak near 1 inch per hour within the heaviest part of the band.
On southern edge of the band, a sleet/snow mix is expected. The
potential for heavy precipitation should continue over the next four
to six hours.

..Broyles/Mosier.. 01/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   35809038 35429017 35139019 34919024 34569051 34479078
            34429160 34439365 34489446 34619484 34899502 35169505
            35579494 35969445 36069279 35989086 35809038 

Mesoscale Discussion 0038
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Areas affected...The Texarkana Region into southern Arkansas and far
western Mississippi

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 240526Z - 241030Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates are expected to increase across the
Texarkana region into southern Arkansas and far western Mississippi
through the overnight hours. Freezing rain rates between 0.05 to 0.1
inch/hour are possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures across southern AR into the
Texarkana region are now mostly below freezing despite a slight
abatement of near-surface cold air advection. Several ASOS/AWOS
stations, mPING reports, and web cams have been reporting
predominantly freezing rain with pockets of embedded sleet over the
past couple of hours. Looking upstream, a heavier precipitation band
is noted migrating eastward across north TX/southern OK attendant to
a focused zone of isentropic and frontogenetical ascent at around
850 mb. This uptick in low-level warm advection is noted in regional
VWPs as a steady enlargement of the 0-3 km hodograph, which supports
recent analyses and forecasts. 

Further strengthening of warm advection/frontogenetical ascent at
around the 850 mb level is expected per recent guidance as the
precipitation band spreads east into southern AR over the next 4-6
hours. Strong ascent combined with persistent warm temperatures at
around 700 mb will maintain a broad swath of freezing rain across
the Texarkana region into southern AR, and will likely promote the
onset of freezing rain to far western MS. Freezing rain rates on the
order of 0.05 inch/hour appear likely, but localized rates up to 0.1
inch/hour appear possible across southwest/south-central AR where
CAM consensus for the past few hours has depicted the highest QPF
amounts (which appear reasonable based on observed banding
upstream).

..Moore.. 01/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   32889136 32999414 33229473 33589517 33919537 34229537
            34489517 34579469 34619391 34609290 34609163 34559112
            34399070 34179042 33959036 33219058 32999086 32889136 

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

...Northwest/North Central Gulf Coast...

Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low
off the Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to eject across the
central Baja around mid day as a 500mb speed max rounds the base of
the trough, then ejects into northeast Mexico by 25/06z. In response
to this speed max, a weak surface low should develop along the polar
front over the northwest Gulf basin, then lift northeast across
southeast LA into southern MS late in the period. Latest model
guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will return to the northern
Gulf coast ahead of this weak surface low, but forecast soundings
depict a boundary layer that most likely will not recover adequately
for surface-based convection. While MUCAPE will increase ahead of
the front, any thunderstorms that form will likely be at least
slightly elevated in nature.

Early in the period there is some concern for a few robust
thunderstorms near the TX Gulf coast. However, polar front will
surge offshore near the start of the day1 and the primary concern
for organized storms will be quickly shunted southeast off the
coast. At this time the probability for severe thunderstorms appears
too low to warrant a MRGL Risk.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/24/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN GULF COAST...

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night. Damaging gusts
are expected to be the primary risk.

...Synopsis...
A broad positively tilted larger-scale mid-level trough over the
central US is forecast to intensify Sunday as it moves eastward and
absorbs several smaller perturbations ejecting from the Rockies and
western CONUS. The most prominent of these smaller-scale features
will move from the Sabine Valley and central Gulf Coast,
northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians by
Monday night. Amplification of the overall trough and southwesterly
cyclonic flow aloft will support the development of a weak surface
low ahead of the cold front moving into the Southeast. Southerly
flow ahead of this low will result in modest modification inland of
a remnant Gulf air mass south of a large Arctic intrusion/cold air
damming. Weak buoyancy and strong forcing will likely support a band
of thunderstorms with the potential for some strong/severe storms
through parts of the eastern Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon.

...Eastern Gulf Coast States...
Gradual destabilization is expected early Sunday first over southern
LA and MS as the surface low and warm front lift northward. Strong
isentropic ascent over the shallow Arctic air mass will likely
support a band of initially elevated convection from portions of
East TX into southern LA and MS gradually spreading eastward. With
time, these storms will encounter the northward advancing modified
warm sector as the cold front impinges on the western edge of the
moisture return through the day.

Weak destabilization peaking around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE will
overlap with strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt. This will allow
for some intensification/organization of the ongoing storms where
the near surface air mass can destabilize. Likely linear in nature
owing to the strong frontal forcing, a few stronger segments appear
plausible, especially across southeastern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday afternoon and
evening. Damaging gusts would be primary risk given 50-70 kt flow in
the lowest 1-3 km AGL. A brief QLCS tornado is also possible, but
less certain as the low-level wind field gradually veers through the
day as the main ascent lifts away to the north.

..Lyons.. 01/24/2026