Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible tonight.

...01 Update...

Surface front has advanced across the northern FL Peninsula early
this evening. Weak convection is noted along/behind this boundary,
but the more robust updrafts are now offshore where isolated flashes
of lightning are noted off the GA Coast. Latest diagnostic data does
not appear particularly favorable for deep convection along the wind
shift tonight, and post frontal elevated buoyancy is expected to
remain quite weak. Current thinking is the primary risk for isolated
thunderstorms will be well off the GA/SC Coasts.

..Darrow.. 12/06/2025

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

Model guidance consensus indicates little deviation in the overall
upper-level pattern across CONUS through next week. Ridging nudges
further into CA and the Southwest while troughing persists across
the eastern U.S. A warming and drying trend under the ridge should
continue across the much of the Southwest, CA and Southern Plains
through much of next week while colder/wetter conditions exist
across the eastern U.S., largely mitigating fire weather threats. A
dry cold front will initially shutter fire weather concerns across
the Southern Plains Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday, with relatively warm
temperatures returning midweek contributing to drying of fuels
across the region. A strengthening polar jet across the Northern
Rockies and central/northern Plains and subsequent stronger surface
cyclogenesis in the Central Plains could promote dry and breezy
conditions across eastern NM/West TX vicinity on Day 7/Thursday.
However, uncertainty in fuels and relative humidity reductions
limits confidence in introducing critical fire weather probabilities
at this time.

..Williams.. 12/05/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...