en Español

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251131
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Gonzalo, located about 160 miles east-southeast of the 
southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, and on Tropical Storm Fay, located 
well to the west-southwest of the Azores.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo are issued under WMO 
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.  
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo are issued under WMO 
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Brown
  

000
AXNT20 KNHC 251059
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 42.8W at 25/0900 UTC
or 930 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas to 17 ft are occurring within 
45 nm across the N semicircle. Numerous moderate convection is 
noted from 28N to 31N between 39W and 46W. Some slight 
strengthening is possible over the next 12 hours. Thereafter, 
gradual weakening is expected through the weekend.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 14.2N 22.4W at 25/0900
UTC or 120 nm ESE of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving
NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak
seas are near 15 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection
extends from 10N to 23N between 17W and 22W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 30N between 17W and 29W. On the 
forecast track, the center will pass near or over portions of the 
Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. Some strengthening is 
possible today, with a gradual weakening trend forecast to begin 
this weekend. Swells generated by the storm are expected to 
affect the Cabo Verde Islands through Saturday. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay
and Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Heavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A mid to 
upper-level trough is over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm
sea surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are 
present. This pattern will aid in funneling enhanced tropical 
moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, 
supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat. There is still 
some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest 
rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme 
southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, 
western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as 
well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, 
scattered moderate isolated strong showers and thunderstorms 
are in the Gulf of Honduras, as well as across the offshore waters
of Panama and Costa Rica. Heavy rainfall across these regions 
will create the possibility of life-threatening flash flooding 
and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as 
the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more 
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 55W, from 07N to 16N, moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated
with it at the time.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean along 77W, south of 13N 
into central Colombia, moving westward at 15 kt. Heavy showers and
tstms are occurring over the Panama and Costa Rica offshore waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N25W to 08N37W to 11N48W. There
is no well defined ITCZ further west at this time. See T.S.
Gonzalo in the Special Features section for information on
convection.  

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from SE Louisiana to Cape Coral, FL. Ahead of
this front, a weakening cold front extends from the Straits of
Florida NW to Houston, Texas while a surface trough and a low are 
over the E Bay of Campeche, generating some scattered showers.
Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are in the wake or behind
these frontal boundaries while seas are slight to moderate.

For the forecast, the cold front will merge with a weakening cold
front over the SE Gulf later today and then move E of the Gulf 
tonight into Sat. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow the 
front through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail through Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into 
early next week.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean that is
expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of 
Central America into the weekend.

Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the south-central basin
along with moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient due to the passage of 
a frontal boundary N of the area will support moderate to fresh 
trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere. A middle to upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean 
will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over 
that region through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Tropical 
Storm Fay and Tropical Storm Gonzalo. 

A dissiapting stationary front extends from near 31N72W to the 
Straits of Florida. A reinforcing cold front is across the NW 
waters from 31N75W to near Stuart, Florida. Heavy showers and
tstms are ahead of these boundaries and a 1011 mb low centered
near 28N75W. These showers extends as far as 66W, including the
Great Bahama Bank and the approaches to the Windward Passage. A
broad surface ridge covers the remainder central and eastern
subtropical Atlantic waters. A surface trough is near the SW
periphery of the ridge, extending from 26N54W to 22N60W, which is
generating scattered showers from 21N to 28N between 51W and 59W.
Fresh to strong N to NE winds follow the frontal boundaries while
mainly moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of the boundaries to
63W. Rough seas to 13 ft are behind the front. Moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are elsewhere in the subtropical waters,
except in the vicinity of Fay. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will merge 
with a trailing cold front and then shift eastward, reaching from
near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Sat night before starting 
to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
expected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and 
increasing seas will follow the front through today, before 
decreasing on Sat.

$$
Ramos
  

en Español

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251132
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Polo, located a couple hundred miles offshore of Manzanillo, 
Mexico, on Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest of the 
southern tip of Baja California, and on Hurricane Nolo, located 
a couple hundred miles south of the Big Island of Hawaii.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or 
two to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Afterward, 
environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, 
and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or 
early next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to 
northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern 
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form about 1000 miles 
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. 
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend 
or early next week.  The system is forecast to move generally 
northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of the Hawaiian 
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
  

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251003
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 17.2N 107.5W, or about 
215 nm south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico at 25/0900 
UTC, moving westward at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 929 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 140 kt with 
gusts to 170 kt. Peak seas are currently around 44 ft (13.5 m). 
Polo is revealing a clear eye feature on satellite imagery. A 
solid ring of very cold cloud top temperatures (colder than -75 
degree Celsius surrounds the eye. The observed convection is 
of numerous strong intensity within 60 nm in the NE quadrant, 
180 nm in the SE quadrant, 120 nm in the SW quadrant and 60 nm 
in the NW quadrant. Numerous moderate to isolated strong is 
elsewhere within 180 nm of the center in the W semicircle.
Polo is forecast to maintain its present motion today, 
followed by a gradual turn to the northwest on Sat and north on 
Sun. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Monday. On the 
forecast track, Polo is expected to approach Baja California Sur 
on Mon. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible over
the next 12 to 24 hours. Weakening should begin by Sat. For a 
complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, 
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall 
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will 
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and 
toward Baja California Sur today and into the weekend. These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, 
and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local 
weather office.

Hurricane Odalys is centered near 17.6N 124.0W, or about 850 nm 
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 25/0900
UTC, moving northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 962 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with 
gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are currently around 37 ft (11.5 m). 
satellite imagery reveals that Odaly's eye has become much better
defined during the overnight hours. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is within 90 nm of the center, except 60 nm in the NE 
quadrant. Numerous moderate convection is elsewhere within 120 nm
of the center in the E semicircle. Odalys is expected to turn to
the north over the next couple of days. Odalys is a category 3 
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This 
intensity is expected to persist overnight, before gradual 
weakening is forecast heading into the weekend. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.

Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Southern Mexico: Low
pressure will drift westward from the far western Caribbean into
Central America and adjacent southern Mexico through tonight,
leading to enhanced rainfall over the region into the weekend. 
Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of northwest Nicaragua, 
the mountains of Honduras and Guatemala, as well as portions of 
Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, and will raise concerns for life- 
threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local 
weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather
Prediction Center for more information. As this low pressure 
moves into the eastern Pacific south of southern Mexico early 
next week, it has a potential for tropical development.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 1008 mb low pressure in  
northwest Colombia westward to across the southwestern Caribbean
Sea, to across northern Costa Rica, then to 10N85W to to 11.5N90.5W
and to 14N95W. It resumes SW of Odalys at 12N127W to 12N133W and 
to beyond 14N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
from 06N to 10N between 88W-95W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 03N to 08N between 80W-88W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 08N to 11N between 135W-140W, and 
within 60 nm south of the trough between 129W-135W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
on Major Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys located well
to the west-southwest of the offshore waters.

Away from Polo, light to gentle winds dominate, Seas are 1 to 3 
ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of
the waters away from Polo as indicated in overnight satellite
altimeter data passes.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 17.3N 
108.9W this afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves
to 17.6N 110.7W late tonight, to near 18.5N 112.2W Sat afternoon
with maximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, to near 20.0N 
113.2W late Sat night with maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts 
135 kt, to near 21.7N 113.7W Sun afternoon, and to near 23.3N 
113.5W late Sun night with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 
115 kt. Polo is forecast to move to near 26.4N 111.2W late Mon 
night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Hurricane 
Odalys is near 17.6N 124.0W, or about 850 nm west-southwest of the 
southern tip of Baja California at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northeast 
at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, 
and the minimum central pressure is 962 mb. Odalys will move to near 
18.0N 123.7W this afternoon, to near 18.9N 123.5W late tonight with 
maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, to near 19.7N 123.5W Sat 
afternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, then 
weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 123.5W late Sat night with 
maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Odalys is forecast to 
become post-tropical near 21.9N 123.1W Sun afternoon, and near 22.5N 
122.1W late Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is 
expected to form within the next day or two to the south of the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec. Afterward, environmental conditions should be 
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form late this weekend or early next week as the system 
moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the 
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Hazardous marine 
conditions of very rough seas are expected over the Baja California 
waters this weekend into early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters north of 09N,
and mostly gentle to moderate south-soutwhest winds south of 
09N as seen in overnight available satellite scatterometer data 
passes. Locally rough seas are over the western offshore waters 
of Guatemala due to Major Hurricane Polo near southwestern 
Mexico. Otherwise, moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas 
nearshore Colombia and Panama, and in the lee of the Galapagos 
Islands. 

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail 
across the offshore waters through the weekend, along with mainly
moderate seas. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys located well to 
the west-southwest of the offshore waters.

Outside of Odalys and Polo, moderate or weaker winds dominate. Seas
are 4 to 7 ft in mixed swells away from Polo and Odalys.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is forecast to move near 
near 17.3N 108.9W this afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken
as it moves to 17.6N 110.7W late tonight, to near 18.5N 112.2W 
Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, 
to near 20.0N 113.2W late Sat night with maximum sustained winds 
110 kt gusts 135 kt, to near 21.7N 113.7W Sun afternoon, and to 
near 23.3N 113.5W late Sun night with maximum sustained winds 95 
kt gusts 115 kt. Polo is forecast to move to near 26.4N 111.2W 
late Mon night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt.

Hurricane Odalys is forecast to move to near 18.0N 123.7W this 
afternoon, to near 18.9N 123.5W late tonight with maximum 
sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, to near 19.7N 123.5W Sat 
afternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, then 
weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 123.5W late Sat night with 
maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Odalys is forecast to 
become post-tropical near 21.9N 123.1W Sun afternoon, and near 
22.5N 122.1W late Sun night. Odalys will then weaken to a 
remnant low near 21.7N 121.2W early on Tue.

Fresh to strong southwest to west winds are expected to develop 
south of the monsoon trough over the weekend west of about 130W 
in response to developing broad area of low pressure well to the
east-sooutheast of the Hawaiian Islands. Seas are expected to 
steadily build with these winds, possibly reaching a range of 7 
to 10 ft.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form within
the next day or two to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Afterward environmental conditions should be favorable for 
gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to 
form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves 
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico.

$$
Aguirre
  

en Español

000
ACPN50 PHFO 251132
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located a couple hundred miles offshore of Manzanillo,
Mexico, on Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California, and on Hurricane Nolo, located
a couple hundred miles south of the Big Island of Hawaii.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form about 1000 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend
or early next week.  The system is forecast to move generally
northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
NNNN