Daphne, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

082
FXUS64 KMOB 241218
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
618 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 603 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

 - Strong to severe storms are possible Sunday ahead of a strong
   cold front moving across the area. High risk of rip currents
   Saturday night through Sunday night.

 - Bitter cold temperatures are expected Sunday night and Monday
   night with overnight temperatures dipping into the teens to
   lower 20s. Wind chills values both nights could range from as
   low as the single digits well inland to the teens near the
   coast. Cold temperatures continue Tuesday night into Thursday
   night.

 - Strong northerly winds will likely create hazardous conditions
   for small craft from Sunday through Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Now through Friday...

Through Saturday, a series of weak shortwaves move over the
Southeast, bringing increasing isentropic upglide rain showers north
of a stalled cold front situated along the northern Gulf coast. As
the forecast moves into Saturday night, an opening upper low moving
east along the US/Mexico border develops a surface low over the
northwestern Gulf, when then moves northeast over the western
Southeast (and over the western half of the forecast area), with a
warm front moving inland over and east of I-65 later Saturday night
through Sunday morning. SBCapes rise to around 1000J/kg, but when
combined with good upper divergence, Bulk Wind Shear in the 40-60kt
range, decent 50kt 850mb jet, and 0-1km helicities of 150-250
m^2/s^2, strong to severe storms are possible. Looking at the model
soundings, the instability is tall, but skinny, limiting strong
updrafts, and the wind profile is more linear, leading to small
bowing segments and damaging winds the primary threat. Enough
directional shear is present for spinners, though. Mid level lapse
rates are meh for large hail, but with the good upper dynamics, can
not rule out large hail where stronger updrafts occur. Timing for
any rowdy storms is expected to be late Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon before a strong post system cold front moves across
the forecast area Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. This cold
air and strong post frontal winds will drop temperatures quickly,
bottoming them out in the upper teens over northwestern-most
portions of the forecast area to upper 20s over the western Florida
panhandle, and winds chills bottoming out in the single digits
northwest of I-65 to upper teens southeast. The cold air has
resulted in an Extreme Cold Watch for Sunday night, and likely
Monday night. There still is a very small possibility of
freezing/frozen precipitation as the precipitation ends Sunday
night, but any accumulations are expected to be minimal at most.

From Tuesday on, surface high pressure passes north of the forecast
area, easing the strong northerly flow through mid week. Guidance
has been inconsistent in advertising a shift in the low level flow
to onshore the latter half of the week. Current guidance is
advertising northerly flow limiting moisture availability as more
shortwave energy moves over the Southeast Thursday into the coming
weekend. Some relief for the region comes as temperatures moderate
through the week, but remain below seasonal norms.

Weak onshore flow the rest of the week will keep the Rip Risk Low
into the weekend. As the onshore flow strengthens into Sunday, the
Rip Risk rises to High. The offshore flow Monday and more variable
flow mid week will drop the Rip Risk back to Low in the coming week.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

IFR to MVFR ceilings will persist through most of the morning
before becoming MVFR areawide. Winds will slowly turn easterly
by midday before turning southerly by the late afternoon.
Scattered showers and storms will develop along the coast shortly
after sunset and persist into the overnight hours. IFR to LIFR
ceilings will develop areawide overnight. BB-8

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow tonight will increase to
strong this weekend. A Small Craft advisory has been issued for
strong onshore, then offshore flow this weekend into the coming
week. Winds ease in the coming week, though a shift back to onshore
by mid week has been inconsistently advertised in the guidance.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      66  59  72  23 /  50  80 100  30
Pensacola   66  62  72  28 /  20  60  90  50
Destin      66  60  72  32 /  10  40  90  70
Evergreen   65  55  70  24 /  30  80 100  40
Waynesboro  55  43  64  19 /  70 100 100  20
Camden      58  50  68  20 /  50  90 100  30
Crestview   68  57  73  28 /  10  60  90  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM CST this evening through late
     Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning
     for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM CST this evening through late
     Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to midnight CST Monday
     night for GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 7 AM CST Tuesday for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$