Muscle Shoals, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

413
FXUS64 KHUN 241128
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
528 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 355 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

 - Moderate impacts are expected across far northwest Alabama and
   minor impacts elsewhere from early this morning through Sunday
   evening.

 - An Ice Storm Warning remains in effect for Lauderdale, Colbert
   and Franklin counties in NW AL until 6 PM Sunday, with a
   Winter Weather Advisory in effect elsewhere.

 - Dangerously cold temperatures are expected Sunday into Tuesday,
   with morning wind chills between -5 and 5F.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 355 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The start of a potentially significant winter weather event was
unfolding as we go through the late night. First an overview. A
strong surface high pressure system over the Minnesota/Iowa region
(with an Arctic origin) with maximum pressure corrected to sea-
level of around 1045mb was building eastward. Bitterly cold air
from this ridge was filtering southward, plunging temperatures
over the Tennessee Valley mostly below freezing, ranging from 23
in Fayetteville to 28 in Vinemont. BUT...a few locations over our
more east and south were still above freezing, notably Fort
Payne, Scottsboro, Albertville, and Guntersville.

A large swatch of precipitation was moving across the area from
the west, denoted well by local and regional radar. As of this
writing, the vast majority of it was aloft. A still dry layer
below the precip was evaporating it before it reaches the ground.
That said, a few spots over NW Alabama, including the Muscle
Shoals airport have reported sleet. Just west of our area,
freezing rain and some sleet was being observed by automated
stations with temperatures in the lower 20s. If this continues, it
will obviously stick and result in slippery exposed outdoor
surfaces. Even further to the west, snow was falling over parts of
western Tennessee.

00Z model guidance has continued a trend of this precipitation
overspreading the area as we go into the day. With this system
rather wet (with rainfall totals of 2-3" into late Sunday),
implications for a significant wintry weather event loom. However,
the models continue to show a warmer layer moving in as we go
into the late morning and this afternoon. This should result in
the wintry precipitation mixing with rain, then becoming all rain
in the later afternoon and tonight. Moderate to at times heavy
rainfall when this occurs should help mitigate wintry impacts that
earlier occurred. The models were continuing a trend of more
wintry rather than wet weather over far NW Alabama. This could
result in significant icing there and areas more to our north and
west should this trend hold.

Staying on a more optimistic warming trend, temperatures for all
areas except NW Alabama should rise above freezing by the late
afternoon, ranging into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Total liquid
rainfall into the late afternoon could range upwards of 1/2 of an
inch. With the higher amounts more to our west, colder conditions
there warrant careful monitoring for notable wintry weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 924 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Rain and freezing rain in NW AL will be ongoing at the start of
the short term. At the surface, models continue to support the NW
progression of the warm nose in addition to warming the entire
column above freezing. This will in turn transition the whole
area to rain somewhere between 00-03Z on Sunday. Rain looks to
continue the whole night, hopefully working to melt any ice
accumulations in NW AL. The warm surface air will prevail through
the morning with lows likely teetering right around and just above
freezing Sunday morning. Rain looks to continue for a majority of
the area with two narrow areas of freezing rain possible. The
first will again be in NW AL as the rain vs freezing rain line
looks to again develop, this time closer to the MS state line.
The second area to watch will be NE AL, where CAD from the east my
provide a sufficient enough cooling of the column to produce
freezing rain. Between those two locations, 90-100% rain chances
are forecast. The prolonged high rain chances will raise some
flooding concerns with rises on rivers, creeks, and streams
likely. While flash flooding is unlikely due to the rain falling
over the span of about 24 hours, ponding of water in low lying
areas as well as some localized drainage issues will be of
concern.

The actual surface low will pass just to our south through the
day on Sunday. As the low passes, the warm air will be dragged
eastward with it prompting a brief switch back to sleet/snow for
the most area from Sunday midday through Sunday evening when
precip chances will cease. Behind the surface low, gusty winds are
forecast with gusts of 20+ MPH forecast. This will aid in a swift
influx of cool dry air from the north from Sunday night into
Monday. Temperatures will plunge into the teens come Monday
morning. With the gusty winds, apparent temperatures will be near
or just below 0 degrees area wide. As such a Cold Weather Advisory
will likely be issued in the next two forecast cycles. Of equal
importance, the swift entrance of cold air raises concern for
black ice development. While gusty winds will aid in drying out
the roads, any liquid from significant rainfall on Sunday will
freeze overnight creating black ice by Monday morning. While it is
hard to pinpoint exactly which locations may be of greatest risk
to black ice, it will be important that everyone be mindful of the
risk come Monday morning if venturing out. Any ice on the road
unfortunately will not be melted naturally from Monday high
temperatures as temps won`t even make it above 30 degrees. As
such, if venturing out on Monday make sure to dress appropriately
and be prepared for black ice both in the morning and when
returning in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 924 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

By Monday night, the upper level trough axis pushes east towards the
Mid-Atlantic. In it wake, high pressure centered across the Southern
Plains will be the main driver of local weather. Ideal radiational
cooling conditions will take shape Monday night as the pressure
gradient weakens allowing for light winds and clear skies. We will
truly feel the Arctic airmass as temperatures early Tuesday morning
will dip down into the single digits. Grand ensemble guidance
indicates there is a 5-10% chance of sub-zero temperatures, mainly
north of the TN River with highest chances in southern middle TN. A
Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed to cover this threat.

This cold airmass remains in place through the rest of the upcoming
work week. We should finally warm up above freezing by Tuesday
afternoon, but barely. With strong CAA in place, afternoon highs only
top out in the low to mid 30s despite ample sunshine. Slightly warmer
on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Both Tuesday and
Wednesday night will see overnight lows dropping down into the low to
mid teens. By Thursday, a dry cold front will drop southeast across
the Tennessee Valley. This will reinforce the cold airmass across the
Southeast. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will struggle to climb
above freezing with overnight lows in the lower teens. &&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through around 12Z. After 12Z winter
precip will begin to enter the area from the WSW. Currently we
have a wintry mix of snow and sleet arriving just after 12Z at
MSL and after around 13Z at HSV. Heavier precip will arrive at
both terminals after 18Z with MSL likely seeing a switch from SNPL
to FZRA between 18-20Z. HSV on the other hand will likely see a
switch from SNPL to RA. With the heavier precip, ceilings and
visibilities are forecast to drop to low MVFR. The low MVFR
conditions and heavier precip are forecast to continue beyond 00Z
into the next TAF period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

A wintry mix of FZRA, PL and SN will persist through this morning
before changing to RA southeast of KBGF-KHSV line by 18-20Z. Heavy
accumulations of ice will occur in northwest AL including KMSL.
Ceilings will also deteriorate from VFR to MVFR and IFR as well
and will stay IFR through the rest of the period. There is a low
to medium chance that FZRA will change to RA at KMSL later tonight
(after 07Z), but this remains conditional.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 413 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

High Risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures:

The Climate Prediction Center has included the entire Tennessee
Valley in a High Risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures between
January 31, 2026 through February 1, 2026. Therefore, there is
greater than a 60% chance for temperatures below 17-20 degrees F
during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for ALZ001>003.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for ALZ004>010-016.

TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...17