Florence, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

212
FXUS65 KPSR 261302
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
602 AM MST Thu Mar 26 2026

.UPDATE...12Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably hot conditions will continue to challenge daily
  temperatures records through the rest of the week and into the
  weekend.

- These hot conditions may be dangerous, especially for any
  strenuous outdoor activities without proper hydration and
  frequent breaks in the shade, or air conditioning.

- Temperatures should finally begin to back away from record
  territory by the end of the weekend as the high shifts east and
  cloud cover and shower chances increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Current upper-level water vapor satellite imagery shows a high
pressure system centered over northern Mexico, western TX, and
southern NM along with a weak shortwave straddling the Lower CO
River Valley. This shortwave is leading to some elevated winds
across SE CA earlier this morning. This shortwave will quickly
move east/northeastward into NM by this afternoon and will weaken
as it does. As the shortwaves moves eastward wind speeds will
gradually lower across SE CA through the morning.

Despite slightly lower heights aloft today from the aforementioned
shortwave trough, H5 heights remain in the NAEFS max
climatological percentile. Therefor temperatures will remain
largely unchanged from yesterday, with afternoon high temperatures
in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees today across the lower
deserts. Tomorrow, H5 heights will rise slightly, to 585-588 dm,
resulting in slight warming. Friday is forecasted to be the
warmest day of the week with highs in the low 100s (100-103
degrees) across the lower deserts and in the low to mid 90s across
the higher terrain. Highs of this magnitude will continue to
flirt with daily records. Despite the unusually warm afternoons,
mornings will continue to be on the pleasant side with low
temperatures in the 60s across the lower deserts and in the 50s
across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term forecast remains on track from previous forecasts. A
strong cold front will move through the Plains with a strong surface
high building behind it, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient
over our region. As a result, there will be breezy to locally windy
conditions develop AZ, particularly over eastern AZ. Gusts of 20-30
mph are forecasted across the lower deserts of south-central and
southwestern AZ. Higher gusts, 30-40 mph, are likely across the
higher terrain east of the Phoenix Metro. Some gusts in excess of 40
mph are possible along the ridgetops. This would advisory level
winds, however due to the limited spatial and temporal scope of 40
mph+ winds a Wind Advisory will not be issued at this time. However,
one may be needed in future forecast updates. Temperature wise, the
high pressure will start to weaken and shift further eastward, which
will result in temperatures cooling slightly. Afternoon high
temperatures are forecasted to be in the upper 90s to around 100
degrees across SE CA and SW AZ. As for the lower deserts of south-
central AZ, cloud cover will start to move in keeping temperatures
in the upper 90s, which is still near record territory.

Heading into the end of the weekend and beginning of next week, we
will see a pattern change with the aforementioned high pressure
becoming centered over the Plains. With the high centered over
the Plains that will result in southerly flow over our region,
which in turn will allow for some sub-topical moisture to make
it`s way up into our region. Ensemble members continue to show
PWATs increasing to around 200-250% of normal across AZ on
Sunday. This increase in moisture will at least bring an abundance
of cloud cover to our region. The cloud cover in combination with
the high shifted further east will result in cooling
temperatures. Afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to be in
the mid to upper 90s across the lower deserts both on Sunday and
Monday. The influx of moisture will also result in some low-end
shower and thunderstorm chances across the higher terrain to the
north and east of the Phoenix Metro. Despite the abundance of
moisture, with temperatures so high there will likely be too much
dry air for any shower activity across the lower deserts.
Additionally, the only forcing will be from orographic lift from
the mountains. Any showers or storms that form will likely fall
apart quickly as they move away from any topography. Any hope of
rainfall for lower elevation areas will have to follow any outflow
boundaries moving off the high terrain, but with where potential
storms may initiate, and the expected storm motion, that appears
to be an unlikely outcome at this point. Currently rain chances
are sitting around 20-30% with thunderstorm chances around 10-15%
across the higher terrain east of Phoenix on both Sunday and
Monday.

Ensembles continue to show an East Pacific trough moving through
the region during the middle of next week. This feature currently
looks to drop H5 heights into a 567-575 dm range on Tuesday and
Wednesday. As a result afternoon high temperatures will cool back
into the 80s by Wednesday, which is near to slightly above normal
for this time of year. The last time our region saw afternoon high
temperatures in the 80s was on March 11, which will be 3 weeks by
next Wednesday. Additionally, this trough may bring additional
shower and storm chances to the region. The NBM currently has the
best rain chances (20-30%) across the higher terrain to the north
and east of Phoenix. Depending on the progression of the trough
(if it digs further south) the rain chances could increase for the
beginning of April. Stay tuned for future updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1120Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period. Winds
will continue to follow diurnal trends with speeds generally aob
10 kt. Other than a FEW distant high cirrus, skies will be mostly
clear through Friday morning.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation concerns are expected during the next 24 hours.
Outside of extended periods of VRB to calm conditions during the
forecast window, winds will favor a W`rly component at each
terminal. FEW-SCT high cirrus will clear by late morning, giving
way to clear skies trough through Friday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Record heat along with very dry conditions will continue through
at least the start of the weekend. MinRH values will run generally
around 5-10% today and tomorrow before increasing closer to
10-20% starting Saturday. MaxRHs will follow a similar uptrend
with readings close to 20-40% the next few mornings before rising
through the weekend. By the end of the weekend and beginning of
next week, overnight recoveries will be in the 40-60% range.
Some marginal breeziness (gusts 15-25 mph) is expected again this
afternoon. Stronger winds (gusts 25-35 mph) enter the picture
late Friday into Saturday mainly, for areas east of the Colorado
River. Higher gusts upwards of 40+ mph will be likely (~80%
chance) for portions of the eastern Arizona high terrain, but
should be confined to the highest ridgetops. With very dry air in
place, marginal breezes will lead to periods of elevated fire
weather conditions through Friday. Even with the enhanced winds
for Saturday, RHs should come up enough to limit critical
thresholds for being met, but continued elevated, to near
critical, conditions can be expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily record highs through this week:

Date      Phoenix         Yuma         El Centro
----      -------         ----         ---------
3/26    100 in 1988     99 in 1988     98 in 1988
3/27     98 in 1986    100 in 1986     99 in 1988
3/28     95 in 2015     98 in 2015     98 in 2015
3/29     97 in 2015    100 in 1897     97 in 1969

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Ryan/RW
CLIMATE...RW/18