Cape Coral, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

093
FXUS62 KTBW 261126
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
726 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 723 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue through Wednesday.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the
  afternoon and evening hours through Wednesday, then at almost
  anytime Thursday through next Tuesday.

- An increasingly wet pattern is expected late in the week through
  early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 723 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

It was fairly active off the Nature Coast overnight, with a line
of storms developing over the NE Gulf Waters near the Big Bend
region. While that activity has now wound down, some showers
continue off the FL West Coast this morning. There are a couple
clusters approximately 15 to 20 miles west of Sanibel, some
additional clusters approximately 70 to 80 miles west of
Clearwater, and a couple additional light showers 5 to 10 miles
west Cedar Key. There are also a few showers that have begun to
pop up across the FL East coast as well.

In between these clusters of storms off the West Coast of Florida
and the showers popping up along the East Coast, drier air is
present over the region. Aircraft soundings and early balloon data
both show a column with less available moisture than this time
yesterday. While CAMs suggest that this drier layer will be eroded
out by deeper moisture late in the afternoon, this favors the most
significant convection again being delayed until late in the day
and into the evening tonight. This is further supported by the
once again delayed sea breeze development, with a stronger
easterly flow remaining present this morning.

Thus, another warm, humid day is expected with above average
temperatures likely once again, given the delayed convection for
most of the area. This is consistent with the current forecast. No
changes are needed at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Thunderstorms are again the primary aviation impact, with a delayed
start anticipated due to some drier air this morning and fairly
strong easterly flow. All terminals will have some potential for
thunderstorms, but the most likely terminals to see impacts are
KTPA and KPIE given the setup for the day. Confidence is lower
across SWFL and the interior. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions and
gusty, erratic winds in the vicinity of storms. Tomorrow looks to
be a transition before more of a WSW flow sets up Thursday and on
into the weekend. As this pattern brings more moisture and
instability into the region, the potential for thunderstorm
impacts at terminals will increase and the windows where storms
are be possible will get larger as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Ridging will remain off the southeast U.S. coast through midweek
with the breezy southeast flow, sea breeze regime 7, persisting
across the region. Some drier air will move into the area from the
southeast this morning, but then moisture will increase by evening
allowing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to
develop along the sea breeze boundary and move back toward the
coast. A similar scenario plays out on Wednesday, but with a
little more moisture we`ll see more numerous late afternoon and
evening shower and thunderstorm coverage across most inland areas.

For Thursday through Saturday, the ridging will weaken and shift
south and east as an upper level trough begins to setup over the
eastern states. This shifts the flow to a more southwesterly
direction over the area, sea breeze regime 4 Thursday then 5
Friday and Saturday, which will bring the deep moisture that has
been over the central gulf eastward over the Florida peninsula
leading to more clouds and higher rain chances. The rain chances
will be at almost anytime on these days, but the highest PoPs will
be over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula
during each afternoon and evening.

During the second half of the weekend into early next week the
global models diverge some and have differing scenarios for our
area. However, it does still look like the upper level troughing
will linger somewhere over the eastern U.S. with plenty of
moisture across the region. Therefore, the chance for showers and
thunderstorms at almost anytime should continue, with the highest
PoPs over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula
each afternoon and evening.

Daytime high temperatures will remain near to a couple of degrees
above normal through Wednesday, then with more clouds and higher
rain chances temperatures will settle back to near normal, and by
the weekend even a couple of degrees below normal. Meanwhile low
temperatures will remain near to a few degrees above normal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

South to southeast winds will continue across coastal waters
through midweek. Showers and thunderstorms will move out into
the gulf late each day and continue into the early morning hours.
Winds will become more south to southwest during the second half
of the week with deep tropical moisture moving over the waters
leading to a chance of showers and thunderstorms at almost
anytime.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Ample moisture will keep relative humidity values well above
critical levels and lead to scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day. Some high dispersions will be possible
with gusty winds, otherwise fire weather concerns remain low
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  77  89  77 /  50  60  30  40
FMY  94  76  92  76 /  40  30  70  60
GIF  93  76  92  75 /  40  40  70  60
SRQ  93  75  91  75 /  40  50  30  40
BKV  94  73  92  73 /  60  70  40  50
SPG  93  77  91  78 /  40  50  30  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Close