Moscow, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

563
FXUS66 KOTX 260708
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1208 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will impact the region at times
  Tuesday through Friday. The threat for thunderstorms will be
  localized Tuesday and Wednesday then more widepsread Thursday
  and Friday. A few storms may be strong with a risk for hail,
  gusty outflow winds, and heavy downpours.

- Drier and breezy conditions return over the weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be cooler with showers. Thunderstorms with heavy
downpours will be possible in North Idaho during the evening.
The threat for showers and thunderstorms retreats to the lower
Idaho Panhandle and southeastern Washington Wednesday then
becomes widespread on Thursday. Thursday will be warm with
temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s. Unsettled weather
continues on Friday before drier conditions with breezy winds
return over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday-Thursday: A deep upper-level low will migrate into
Oregon on Tuesday then set up over Northern CA /Nevada
Wednesday/Thursday. Pulses of energy rotating around the low
will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to Inland NW.
Meanwhile, an influx of deeper moisture drawn northward along
the spine of the Rockies will wrap into the system from the
northeast. Precipitable water values will increase toward an
inch or more by Tuesday night. As a result, showers and
thunderstorms will be trending wetter with time with potential
for localized heavy rainfall.

Tuesday will feature widely scattered showers through the
morning. Heavier cloud cover split across the forecast area
will result in cool temperatures (60s) for the southern half of
WA and the lower Idaho Panhandle. On the contrary, northern WA
and the northern Panhandle will be warmer with mid to upper 70s.
The first of several shortwaves circulating around the low will
track into North Idaho and NE WA during the late afternoon and
evening. Given the warmer temperatures across the north,
instability parameters support thunderstorms for locations like
Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, and Ione and showers further south and
west. There are differences with the exact track of the
shortwave and available instability when it arrives resulting in
a wide range of rainfall amounts for North Idaho/NE WA. Latest
HREF advertises a 40-50% chance for at least a quarter of an
inch and 15-20% chance for half an inch of rain. Some
deterministic models have amounts closer to an inch. This slug
of heavier precipitation mainly comes during the evening into
the overnight periods as Central and southeastern WA are drying
out.

Models have backed off on a shortwave arriving during the day
Wednesday with little in the way of precipitation across the
region outside isolated surface based convection in the
mountains. The main threat for showers and storms arrives
Wednesday evening into Wednesday night with the focus shifting
to the lower Idaho Panhandle and southeastern WA. Rainfall
probabilities are less certain with only a 10-20% chance for a
quarter of an inch. As the low sags southward, temperatures will
be on rise for Wednesday with afternoon readings returning to
the 80s. This will drive up CAPE values from Tuesday but if the
shortwave does not pivot into the region or arrives after dark,
thunderstorm opportunities could be limited.

There is higher confidence for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms come Thursday with afternoon instability peaking
for the week as temperatures warm further into the upper 80s to
lower 90s and the low beginning to wobble back to the north with
shortwaves in closer proximity. NBM precipitation chances vary
from 35-80% region-wide coupled with 20-40% chance for
thunderstorms. Given the higher moisture content of the air mass
and instability, Thursday will have the potential to not only
deliver strong storms with hail and gusty winds but also flash
flooding. This will be a day to closely monitor.

Friday-Sunday: There is generally good agreement in the ensembles
for another low to swing into the Eastern Pac and toward the NW
Coast. This will act as a kicker to send the Oregon low to the
northeast delivering yet another day of showers and
thunderstorms Friday. Ensembles are in decent agreement that
showers and any chances for thunderstorms will retreat to the
rising terrain of NE WA and N ID over the weekend with breezy to
gusty winds for much of Central and Eastern WA. Details
regarding the depth of the incoming low remain uncertainty with
many variations but I do have moderate confidence that the air
mass will dry out supporting drier conditions and temperatures
cool back into the 60s-70s which is a strong signal for at least
one day of windy conditions. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: Region is still under the influence of a weakening
frontal system. Showers are being moving south to north over
KPUW-KLWS-KGEG-KSFF-KCOE. A moistening boundary layer overnight
will increase the potential for low stratus cover with
widespread MVFR ceilings by 14Z and continuing through the
morning on Tuesday. Clearing skies and VFR condtions expected
for Tuesday afternoon with breezy west winds in the teens.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence is moderate (50-70%) for low stratus and MVFR
conditions tonight into Tuesday morning after 14Z at
KLWS/KPUW/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. There is a 15% chance for ceilings
below 1,000 ft agl and IFR conditions. /JDC

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        68  48  82  54  87  55 /  30  30   0  20  10  70
Coeur d`Alene  67  50  81  56  87  57 /  60  40  10  20  20  70
Pullman        60  43  75  50  83  51 /  40  30   0  20  30  70
Lewiston       65  50  80  56  87  57 /  40  40   0  30  40  80
Colville       74  46  86  49  90  50 /  40  50  20  10  10  60
Sandpoint      70  50  82  55  87  55 /  50  70  10  10   0  70
Kellogg        66  49  83  55  90  55 /  40  60  10  20  20  80
Moses Lake     70  48  86  55  90  55 /  20  10   0   0   0  50
Wenatchee      70  54  85  61  89  61 /  10  10  10   0  10  50
Omak           74  55  88  59  91  59 /  50  10  20   0  10  70

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$