Royal Oak, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

039
FXUS63 KDTX 241134
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
634 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM this morning
for wind chill values between -15F and -25F.

- Dry conditions today give way to accumulating snowfall late
tonight and into Sunday.

- Highly variable snowfall totals expected by Sunday night with 5-6
inches possible for Monroe and Wayne counties, 2-4 inches for the
rest of Metro Detroit, and less than an inch north of M-46.

- Very cold conditions continue next week with addition Cold
Weather Advisories possible.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ridge of surface high pressure is centered over Lower Michigan this
morning. Calm to slightly westerly winds in place will eventually
emerge out of the east today. The increasingly easterly trajectory
is expected to keep any Lake Michigan stratocumulus west of the taf
sites today. High cloud with some transparency this morning will
give way to increasing top down saturation and mid cloud by this
evening. The next winter storm will lift northward towards the
Detroit taf sites tonight. Low confidence and high uncertainty
exists on when snowflakes will begin reaching the ground at DTW.
Have pushed back the TEMPO group until 09-12z with any IFR
conditions holding off until after 12z Sunday.

 DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for ceilings aob 5,000 feet early Sunday morning.

* High in precipitation type of snow.

* Low in in ceilings of 200 ft or visibilities of 1/2SM in falling
  snow before 12z Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

DISCUSSION...

Very cold start today across Southeast Michigan, and for much of
CONUS, as clear overnight skies lie atop a bona fide arctic airmass.
This has led to initial readings well below 0F, but since gradient
winds are weak (predominantly AOB 5 knots) the difference between
air temperatures and wind chill values has mostly been minimal. The
Cold Weather Advisory should be allowed to expire by 10 AM as wind
chills increase above -15F for the rest of the day. Gradual thermal
moderation is already underway within the column, marked by 850 mb
temperatures warming from -27C (per 24.00Z KDTX RAOB), to the minus
teens (Celsius) by this afternoon. This translates to a marginally
warmer day, with daytime highs in the upper single digits, in spite
of increasing cloud cover. Mesoscale 1043 mb surface ridge dislodges
from southwest Lower Michigan later today and migrates eastward,
eventually flipping light winds easterly by this evening.

Continuing to monitor the next opportunity for accumulating snowfall
late tonight into Sunday as highly amplified northern and southern
stream troughing phase over the southern Plains, before the
composite wave ejects into The Northeast by Monday. Local isentropic
surfaces steepen and moisten with time as the ThetaE ridge lifts out
of the Ohio Valley and into the Lower Peninsula tonight. Light snow
begins to spread north of the Michigan/Ohio border sometime between
03Z and 06Z Sunday, well downstream of the actual wave features. The
more substantial CVA should still be west of the Mississippi by 12Z
Sunday. Given the lack of more meaningful dynamics, initial
overnight accumulations (south of I-94) should hold below an inch.
The moderate to briefly heavy snowfall rates are not expected until
Sunday afternoon, after the lead VortMax clips the southeast edge of
the CWA.

As expected with a narrowing time horizon, consensus model data has
sharpened wrt the QPF gradient. Latest deterministic, ensemble, and
ML guidance show agreement in the expected range of QPF. Areas south
of I-94 will likely get between 0.20 and 0.40 inches of liquid
equivalent, while the sharp gradient with northwest extent keeps
total QPF to around a few hundredths across the Tri-Cities.
Regarding snow-related headlines, opted to hold off on an advisory
(or watch/warning for Monroe or Wayne Counties) tonight to allow an
additional cycle of model data. At the very least, an Advisory will
likely be needed for most counties across the southern half of the
forecast area where forecast soundings maintain deep saturation
through the DGZ. The main limiting factor will be the lack of
stronger ascent which keeps average totals in the 2-4 inch range,
but decreases sharply north of I-69. The exceptions will be over
Monroe and Wayne counties where vertical velocities could produce
rates on the order of a half inch per hour. This leads to non-zero
potential in approaching Warning criteria, but the latest SLR trends
closer to 15-1 and few 7+ inch solutions preclude a Watch. Some
uncertainty exists with how long snowfall continues Sunday night,
and the extent to which post-event lake effect impinges on the
forecast area. Another quarter to half inch is possible late Sunday
into Monday.

Daily lake effect snowfall chances in-play for much of next week as
colder than normal conditions persist. Several reinforcing shots of
arctic air and supporting disturbances aloft offer additional
opportunities for wind chills dropping below -15F, therefore future
Cold Weather Advisories may be warranted. Daytime highs are capped
in the teens during the next 7 days.

MARINE...

The maintenance of a heavy lake effect snow band will persist across
north to north central Lake Huron through the afternoon as low-level
convergence persists within a corridor of unstable conditions. A
strong high pressure system to then settle in across the Great Lakes
though the day. This will bring a period of lighter winds through
the weekend.

Across the southern Great Lakes, light snow will begin to expand
across the region through Sunday as an expansive low pressure system
arrives across the Appalachia region. The departure of this low
pressure system into the western Atlantic will reinforce arctic air
across the Great Lakes, which will increase wind speeds through the
early and midweek period.

CLIMATE...

The record low min temps for Saturday, January 24th.

Detroit: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963)
Flint:   -13 Degrees (Set in 1963)
Saginaw: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963)

The record low max temps for Saturday, January 24th.

Detroit: 4 Degrees (Set in 1963)
Flint:   5 Degrees (Set in 1963)
Saginaw: 8 Degrees (Set in 1961)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......AM
CLIMATE......TF/KGK


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