Shakopee, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

982
FXUS63 KMPX 260755
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
255 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The prolonged heat wave continues to start this week. Extreme
  Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories have been posted through
  Monday evening. The hottest day will be today when heat
  indices will reach 100 to 110.

- Gradual improvement from the heat this week, with highs
  generally in the mid 80s to low 90s each day.

- Low confidence persists on convective development through
  Sunday night due to capping and scattered/disorganized nature
  of storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Today...As of 2AM, and narrow cluster of decaying storms is
tracking east across the Twin Cities metro. After stepping
outside our office in Chanhassen, we can confirm that there was
a good amount of lightning with it, and an even greater amount
of bugs buzzing around. It certainly adds to our ambiance of a
hot and humid day as dewpoints remain in the 70s for a good
portion of the region overnight. And we`ll only see Td`s
increase today as southerly flow continues to advect more
moisture northwards (portions of southern MN could see Tds
exceeding 80F by this afternoon). An Extreme Heat Warning
remains in effect through this evening with much of the area
expected to see heat indices in the triple digits for several
hours. The high end potential for heat today is greater than
yesterday knowing this incoming airmass set all-time record
highs in Rapid City and produced heat indices north of 110F in
Sioux Falls. At the same time, our greater dewpoints will limit
how much we warm up to some extent.

The other wild card again of course is lingering cloud cover
from these overnight storms. What we saw yesterday over eastern
MN and western WI was a layer of stratus getting trapped within
the low-level inversion and just hanging around long enough to
prevent those areas from warming up as much as western MN was
able to yesterday. Early signs are showing cloud cover quickly
clearing behind the storms, as the steering winds push it
southeast. In addition to the storms and cloud cover, there are
pockets of locally dense fog this morning, especially across
western WI where cloud cover has been thinner and air temps have
been able to cool down to dewpoints.

The Slight Risk remains in place today for severe weather
potential across the Upper MS Valley. The majority of hi-res
guidance suggests the main axis of storm development today will
be somewhere across northeast MN and Lake Superior where the
mid-level cap is bit weaker. Storms then slide southeast,
likely staying mostly across WI and MI. If we end up a few
degrees cooler around 700 mb, it is possible that we have storms
fire further west into MN which would have the potential to
produce severe wind and hail. Timing for any storms will most
likely be from the late afternoon into the evening hours.

Monday...We begin to "cool off" as the upper level ridge weakens
and surface winds shift out of the north. This will drop
dewpoint temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees and leave air temps
in the low to mid 90s for areas with limited cloud cover. A Heat
Advisory was issued for the urban heat island of the Twin Cities
metro to highlight these lingering heat impacts, especially
given the overnight temperatures into Monday morning will be in
the mid- upper 70s. The other thing that could obviously have a
major impact on this would be any sort of overnight MCS like the
deterministic Euro wants to suggest.

Tuesday through Saturday...Things remain warm, but otherwise
relatively quiet under the northwest flow aloft. Skies will
become hazy at times as elevated wildfire smoke continues to
stream east from the western coast. There are no major signals
for rain outside of Thursday night into Friday as guidance
continues to pinpoint a weak mid-level shortwave within the
northwest flow. The latest NBM PoPs bring widespread 30 to 50
percent across the area which looks reasonable given the PWAT
values around 1.5 to 1.8 inches and a couple thousand Joules of
MUCAPE. Next weekend looks promising as surface high pressure
starts to spread in from the north and leave us in a broad area
of subsidence.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

MCS across southern MN and IA is quickly decaying, but a few
elevated storms have developed south of AXN. The thinking is
these storms should not persist very long, so kept STC and MSP
dry, but will continue to monitor. The low stratus that
attempted to develop across southern MN and western WI is also
scattering out from the subsidence with the decaying MCS.
Therefore, mostly VFR conditions will continue until the high
cloud canopy from the MCS dissipates at which point fog may
become the main issue toward sunrise.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. NW at 10-15G25kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Chisago-
     Douglas-Goodhue-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-
     Sherburne-Stearns-Todd.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for Benton-Chisago-Douglas-Goodhue-Isanti-Kanabec-
     Mille Lacs-Morrison-Sherburne-Stearns-Todd.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-
     Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-
     Freeborn-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-
     McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-
     Scott-Sibley-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Washington-
     Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
     Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Monday for
     Anoka-Carver-Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington.
WI...Heat Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for Pierce-Polk-St.
     Croix.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-
     Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...Borghoff