Raymore, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

332
FXUS63 KEAX 261111
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
611 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record high temperatures expected today. The daily maximum for
  the Kansas City area will easily be broken. The warmest March
  temperature for KC is also in play.

- Southwesterly wind gusts of 40+ mph are expected today ahead
  of strong cold front. Then, winds become
  northerly/northeasterly behind the front with additional wind
  gusts to 40 mph possible through the late evening and
  overnight hour. This will also lead to elevated fire weather
  conditions across the area today.

- A strong cold front will move through the area this evening,
  with showers and storms developing along and behind the
  front. A strong storm with marginal hail and wind gusts can`t
  be ruled out.

- From the furnace on Thursday, to the freezer on Saturday
  morning. Low temperatures bottom out in the 20s to low 30s.
  Folks with agricultural/horticultural interest will need to
  protect sensitive vegetation that has emerged early this
  spring.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Daily record high temperatures will be smashed today for MCI and
STJ. Compressional warming ahead of a cold front will result in
temperatures surging into the lower to middle 90s for both sites.
The all-time warmest March high is also at risk with this heat for
the Kansas City area. Deep mixing is expected to occur ahead of the
front, with winds at the top of the mixed-layer near 40kts. Given
this, we should winds and particularly gusts increase quickly this
morning, between 14Z and 15Z. Wind gusts around 40 to possibly 45
mph look possible ahead of the front. After the front moves through,
winds shift to north and northeast. While mixing behind the front
won`t be as deep, winds at the top of the mixed-layer look similar
and thus we should see wind gusts around 40 to possibly 45 mph this
evening/overnight behind the front. The strongest winds should
diminish in the 03Z to 06Z time frame as the core of winds aloft
shift to the southwest into KS western OK. All of this will lead to
elevated fire weather conditions today. Though the combination of
winds and low humidity values don`t sync up to really lead to
critical fire weather conditions, burning is strongly
discouraged. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions
are possible again Friday due to the extremely dry air mass
settling into the area. If winds trend stronger Friday
afternoon, Red Flag conditions may be met.

The threat of strong storms with this frontal passage can`t be ruled
out entirely, especially along and just behind the front, where
there may be enough instability to lead to stronger updrafts with a
marginal hail and wind threat. Otherwise, it looks like the bulk of
precipitation continues to be well behind the front, with any
instability being very elevated and weakening with time as colder
and drier air build southward. Given we`ll already be seeing wind
gusts of 40+ mph, some additional downward momentum from a
thunderstorm downdraft may support a window of some severe wind
gusts. But the overall severe threat looks low given the
anticipated timing of convection being post-frontal and the
resulting lack of instability for storms to work with.

Much colder and drier air moves in behind this cold front moving
through today. High temperatures drop 30-40 degrees for Friday,
though we just trend closer to normal conditions. And with the
surface high moving over the area near/just before sunrise, we
should see lows dip into the 20s and low 30s across the area.
It`s still early in the spring, but anyone with sensitive
vegetation that has already emerged will need to take
precautions to prevent damage from occurring.

Temperatures warm back into the 80s next week as broad ridging
reestablishes itself across the the central and western CONUS. We
will see steady southerly to southwesterly low-level flow, with the
fetch coming from the Gulf. This will allow for better moisture to
return to the area and may also lead to better chances for
precipitation for mainly the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions are likely through the forecast, with a small
potential for lower vis and ceilings in a heavier shower or
storm that affects a terminal. Also, there is some potential for
lower ceilings behind the cold front tonight. Ensemble guidance
has higher probabilities for this occurring south and east of
the terminals, so for now will keep VFR mentioned. Winds will be
strong and gusty from the southwest through the first half of
the forecast, then switch to the north and northwest behind cold
front that will move through the terminals 20Z and 23Z. Showers
develop behind the front for a few hours before moving south
and/or dissipating as cooler and drier air move into the area.
I can`t rule out a thunderstorm at a terminal but the chances
look too low to keep a -TSRA mention going, even in a PROB30
group.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 26:
KMCI: 85/1991
KSTJ: 89/1991

March 30:
KMCI: 82/1986
KSTJ: 86/1968

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CDB
CLIMATE...CMS