Gloucester, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

287
FXUS61 KPHI 261045
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
645 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Growing concern for Tuesday`s threat of heavy rainfall leading
to flash flooding and potential for severe thunderstorms.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Showers and thunderstorms return and increase along with
increasingly more humid for the first half of the week. There is
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms both Monday and
Tuesday, and potential for areas of heavy rain leading to flash
flooding on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms return and increase
along with increasingly more humid for the first half of the
week. There is potential for strong to severe thunderstorms both
Monday and Tuesday, and potential for areas of heavy rain
leading to flash flooding on Tuesday.

As a strong upper-level ridge expands into the Plains early
next week, northwesterly flow aloft will occur across much of
the East. This ridge gets pushed back some as a potentially
strong upper-level trough in eastern Canada sends spokes of
energy southeastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast. This
will initially allow for the upper-level trough to become more
carved out across the Northeast by later this weekend. Some
guidance maintains a vigorous shortwave riding over the ridge
and sliding southeastward across the Great Lakes Monday and then
across the Northeast during Tuesday. This results in some model
solutions continuing to close off the trough across the
Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday. Some other guidance is slower
and weaker and thus does not close it off or briefly closes it
off a day or two later. The upper-level system will drive
surface low pressure and a cold front our way Tuesday into
Wednesday. It will become much more humid during the first half
of next week, with dew points looking to surge on Tuesday.

This will all result in an increase in convective chances
Monday and especially Tuesday into Wednesday. While there
remains some differences among the model guidance on the timing
and strength of the features diving southeastward early next
week, the setup would continue to favor upstream convective
development given northwesterly flow aloft.

Monday`s setup looks to be a pulsy, single to multi cell
cluster environment with low shear and modest instability. Deep
layer shear will be weak, only around 10-20 kts. Instability
looks to be in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. DCAPE is also modest
around 500-1000 J/kg. This setup will favor scattered, hit or
miss type showers and thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon hours, with a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms.
Any stronger storms could produce isolated strong to marginally
severe wind gusts and brief heavy downpours. Our entire area is
outlooked in a MARGINAL Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe
thunderstorms on Monday. Scattered showers and storms may
continue overnight as better forcing arrives aloft, though the
severe threat will likely be minimal overnight.

Tuesday looks to feature the most widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Height falls and jet dynamics aloft will favor
convective development nearly all day as surface low pressure
develops just to our west. This will keep a steady stream of
warm, moist air pumping into the area and keeping the
environment conditionally unstable despite cloud cover. PWats
will rise to near 2" by the end of the day. Some models suggest
we could have a stalled or slow moving frontal boundary across
the central or northern portion of the forecast area, which
could act as a focusing mechanism for heavy rainfall. Heavy
rain leading to flash flooding could end up being a bigger
concern and greater impact than the severe thunderstorm threat.

Long story short, a very active day is expected convection
wise on Tuesday. A due southerly surface flow and the dynamics
aloft will favor areas along and northwest of the I-95 corridor
and/or the frontal boundary to be the focus of the heaviest
rain, and areas along and southeast of the I-95 corridor and/or
the frontal boundary where convection is less messy and the
environment a bit less contaminated being the greater severe
thunderstorm threat depending on exactly how the convection
evolves. That still remains a little unclear at the moment, and
may depend on how storms evolve upstream Monday and Monday
night.

WPC has outlooked much of our area from the I-95 corridor and
north in a SLIGHT Risk (level 2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall
for Tuesday. SPC has outlooked the southern half of our area
from the Philly metro and south in a SLIGHT Risk (level 2 out of
5) for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, low pressure looks to be offshore to our east.
Scattered showers and storms will likely develop again by
afternoon, at least across our NJ and PA zones, but the severe
thunderstorm and heavy rain threat look to be lower and focused
across southern New England given the setup. We`ll continue to
monitor this period though.

Thursday and Friday will feature continued chances of scattered
showers and storms (20-40% chance), especially Thursday as the
Tuesday-Wednesday system slowly pushes east. Details on the late
week period are very uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. East-northeast winds around 5 kts or less in the
morning become east-southeast around 5-10 knots in the
afternoon. Winds mainly south to southwest at ABE/RDG, where
there is a 10-15% chance of a shower or storm late. Winds may
become light and variable at times. High confidence in VFR
conditions.

Tonight...VFR. Winds lessening to less than 5 kts favoring a
south to southwest direction, but winds may become calm at
times. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 18Z and at
night. Brief restrictions possible at times.

Tuesday...Restrictions likely in widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Southerly wind gusts up to 20 kts possible.

Wednesday and Thursday...Prevailing VFR, but isolated to
scattered showers and storms anticipated each day could cause
brief restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards expected through tonight. Winds mainly out of
the east around 10 kts or less with seas of 2-3 feet.

Outlook...

Monday...No prevailing marine hazards expected, however
scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the coast.

Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible as southerly
flow increases. Showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday and Thursday...No prevailing marine hazards expected,
however scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the
coast.

Rip Currents...

For today, east-northeast winds generally around 10 mph.
Breaking waves of 2-3 feet for the Jersey Shore and 1-2 feet for
Delaware beaches. Dominant northeasterly swell around 3 feet at
6-7 seconds in length, with an additional southeasterly swell
of 1-2 feet at around 8 seconds. Have maintained the MODERATE
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at all area
beaches.

For Monday, south winds around 5-10 mph. Breaking waves of 1-2
feet along most of the coast, though they could approach 3 feet
for southern parts of the Jersey Shore. There will be multiple
swell groups, but all of them look to be fairly light and short
in period. Given the more shore-parallel flow and light swell,
there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents at all area beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AKL/Gorse/RCM/Staarmann
AVIATION...Staarmann
MARINE...Cooper/Staarmann