Buffalo, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

000
FXUS61 KBUF 060645
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
145 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold pattern through this weekend and into the first few days of
next week will support several weak storm system that will bring
light day-to-day snowfall amounts. A cold front today will focus
snow northeast of the Lakes, with a wave along this front tomorrow
bringing widespread light snow region-wide, especially Sunday
afternoon and into the early overnight hours. A cold, but dry
day Monday will lead into another wave of low pressure that will
bring snow to our region Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cloudy skies this morning ahead of an upstream cold front that is
found over the Central Great Lakes this early morning and will be
bearing down upon our region today.

A fair amount of wind shear and marginal temperatures aloft will
bring weak lake enhanced snow showers northeast of the Lakes through
the mid to late morning hours, with these snowbands becoming better
defined briefly as a ribbon of low level moisture ahead of the front
pushes across our region. Outside this ribbon of deeper moisture dry
air through the snow dentrictic growth zone may allow for spotty
freezing drizzle for SW NYS.

This increase in moisture will bring a brief uptick in moderate
snowfall before winds veer to more westerly behind the front later
this afternoon and evening. A longer duration of the snowbands over
the Tug Hill as flow extends across the entire fetch of Lake Ontario
will bring upwards to 2-3 inches on the Tug Hill. Otherwise snowfall
amounts will range to an inch or two in most persistent bands.

Gusty winds into the 20-30 mph range this afternoon with the frontal
passage, with strongest gusts near the Lakes and this will lead to
some blowing of the snow where a decent fresh snowfall occurs.

Considerable wind shear behind the front, combined with moisture
largely found below the snow dendritic growth zone will bring just
scattered snow flurries and light snow showers southeast of the
Lakes for the remainder of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday a surface wave on the recently passed cold front will pass
over our region from the Ohio Valley with a shortwave trough aloft
bringing additional moisture and lift. Ascent ahead of this
shortwave, combined with low level convergent lift within the
surface trough will bring a period of snow to our region, mainly
from Sunday afternoon through the early overnight hours. The
progressive flow will keep snow amounts in check, with most areas
remaining just below advisory levels with this system.

A very cold period is on tap for Monday - Monday night with surface
ridging passing through. A cold day Monday (highs only in the teens
to lower 20s) will promote a cold evening as temperatures nose dive
down into the single digits (and well below zero east of Lake
Ontario). As the surface high advances eastward through the night a
return flow will allow for some moderation in temperature from west
to east.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An active northern branch of the jet stream this period with a
series of shortwave troughs progressively deepening a long wave
trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast will maintain
precipitation chances (mainly snow) each day through this period.

A surface low Wednesday will pass just to our west and north, with a
strong LLJ of 60 knots and southerly flow warming the boundary layer
sufficiently for plain rain Wednesday for the lower elevations
before a cold front passes through Wednesday night with gusty winds
and a return to snow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Clouds across the area this morning are from two different systems.
Clouds across the Southern Tier are the result of a southern stream
system tracking off the coast of the mid-Atlantic. Clouds over the
lakes, Niagara Frontier and the North Country are from an
approaching cold front and trough. Clouds over the Southern Tier and
Finger Lakes will thin out and break up some this morning as the
southern stream system tracks out to sea. Clouds will then slowly
fill in from the west, while also lowering in height. Flight cats
early this morning will remain mostly VFR, though some CIGs across
the higher terrain are at MVFR and even IFR at times.

Today, CIGs that were at VFR early in the morning will slowly lower
to MVFR by around daybreak for the far western NY and the North
Country. CIGs will continue to lower from west to east through the
morning to widespread MVFR and periods of IFR as lake effect clouds
and snow develops northeast and then east of the lakes. Snow off of
the lakes today should remain mostly on the light side, but
reductions to VSBYs at times will be possible, down to IFR. Gusty
southwest winds to around 25 knots will be possible this afternoon.

Tonight, mainly MVFR CIGs, with higher terrain IFR CIGs expected.
Lake effect snow will continue into the first half of the overnight,
with reductions to VSBY to IFR at times. Lake snow mainly east of
Lake Ontario will drop southeast of the lake through the evening and
snow off of Lake Erie is expected to remain southeast of the lake.
Early lake cloud regime will transition to more overcast as clouds
increase ahead of an incoming surface low. Widespread light snow
will start to move into far western NY near daybreak on Sunday
morning.

Outlook...

Sunday...Widespread snow showers with IFR/MVFR conditions.

Monday...Lingering lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario with
localized MVFR possible.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow showers.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with rain and snow showers, breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the Lower Great Lakes region this afternoon
and evening. Winds will increase ahead of the front with southwest
flow bringing waves over 4 feet on the Lakes, and winds 15 to 20
knots on the Upper Niagara River. Winds will veer to west and then
northwest behind the front, and diminish through the night below
small craft thresholds.

A weak surface low will pass across NYS Sunday, with southwest flow
on Lake Erie, but north of the low, an easterly flow over Lake
Ontario. Winds will become northwesterly Sunday night behind the
front, possibly producing brief small craft conditions on the lakes.

Looking a bit further out two shortwave troughs will pass over the
eastern Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday, with a stronger and lower
LLJ Wednesday. Southwest flow may reach gale force on the Lower
Great Lakes, especially Lake Erie...with Wednesday the better time
period for these stronger winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this
         evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
         Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM
         EST Sunday for LOZ042-045.
         Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
         Sunday for LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...Thomas