Troy, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

420
FXUS61 KALY 261755
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
155 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A cold front tracking through the region tonight has sped up
resulting in rainfall arriving earlier today. Rain is now
expected to overspread much of eastern NY starting late this
afternoon before reaching western New England by early evening.
Rain also ends sooner with most the moderate/steady rain ending
by 06 UTC Friday and lingering showers ending by 12 UTC Friday.
Rainfall amounts have also increased slightly for areas from
I-90 southward with amounts now ranging from 0.50 - 0.75".

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A period of moderate rainfall is likely from the I-90
corridor southward late this afternoon into this evening but
will likely not result in flooding impacts. Then, there is low
to medium confidence for multiple periods of precipitation
during the middle to end of next week that may result in
isolated flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A warm front lifting through the Northeast this morning will
settled around the North Country by this afternoon. Strong
southwest winds in its wake will usher in the warm sector. With
forecast soundings showing the boundary layer becoming well
mixed, there is high confidence for temperatures to exceed 60
degrees outside of the southern Greens and southwest
Adirondacks this afternoon. Enjoy the warm weather while it
lasts as the boundary to our north drops southward late this
afternoon into this evening as broad troughing over southern
Canada shifts eastward. Rather impressive west-southwest winds
in the low and mid-levels will direct a moisture plume out of
the Ohio Valley eastward as height falls and weak shortwaves
riding along the boundary result in periods of rain starting
late this afternoon (21 - 00 UTC) initially in eastern NY before
spreading into western New England early this evening.

By the time the stronger forcing and moisture transport arrive
late afternoon, the boundary looks to settle across the I-90
corridor. Thus, periods of steady/moderate rainfall should
actually miss the southern Adirondacks and Upper Hudson Valley
and become focused in the Mohawk Valley, Capital District,
western MA before sliding southward early this evening. The
impressive moisture transport plus weak elevated instability
will likely support periods of moderate rainfall with the 3-hrly
probabilistic match mean (PMM) precip values from the HREF
ranging 0.10 - 0.50" between 21 UTC and 03 UTC Friday. After 03
UTC, steady/moderate rain exits to our south and east with just
some lingering light showers through 09 - 12 UTC Friday as the
front continues to shift southward. Winds shift abruptly to the
north/northeast behind the front with low-level cold air
advection allowing tempertures to fall into the 20s and 30s by
early Friday. Temperatures turn 5 to 15 degrees below normal
Friday and Saturday. Saturday will be the chilliest day where
there is a greater than 75% chance for high temperatures to fall
below 40 degrees nearly regionwide.

Next focus will be on the middle to end of next week where there
is increasing confidence that ridging in the southern tier of
the country shifts further eastward while multiple shortwaves
continue to track across southern Canada. This pattern looks to
favor increased moisture transport from the Gulf and a warming
temperature trend while the shortwaves provide opportunities
for multiple sfc boundaries that can help focus the moisture
resulting in periods of precipitation. While there remains
considerable uncertainty in the exact timing and placement of
boundaries and ensuing areas of precipitation, the latest NBM
probabilistic guidance shows 30 to 50% chance for greater than
1" of precipitation across eastern NY and western New England
between 7AM Wed and 7AM Fri. Latest MMEFS using the GEFS and
NAEFS for QPF/snow melt (mainly from the southwest Adirondacks)
as input show 10 to 30% chance for action and minor flood stage
along our faster responding rivers through the end of next week.
Even though confidence for any flooding impacts remains low, we
will continue to closely monitor forecast trends through the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18z Friday...VFR conditions prevail across all TAF sites
this afternoon as visible satellite imagery shows high clouds
streaming into the region ahead of an incoming frontal system.
Ceilings will continue to develop and lower through the
afternoon, though VFR conditions should remain in place. By this
evening, rain begins to move in from northwest to southeast,
gradually spreading into terminal boundaries by this evening.
Initially, rainfall rates should be rather light, especially
considering there is a fair amount of dry air to be overcome in
the lower levels. Visibilities should therefore remain
unaffected with ceilings lowering into low-end VFR thresholds.

As the column moistens and forcing for ascent increases just
ahead of the front, rainfall will become more steady with rates
potentially becoming more moderate. There are some differences
in the guidance pertaining to the timing of these more moderate
to locally heavy rates as well as their locations. That said,
generally it looks as though each terminal could have some
steadier rain between 02-08z so TEMPO groups were included
accordingly. MVFR conditions can largely be expected within
these periods of moderate rainfall, though some patchy IFR
conditions cannot be ruled out due to lowered ceiling heights.

Behind the front, rain clears out fairly quickly tomorrow
morning, but some lingering showers could occur particularly at
KALB as some of the guidance hints at the potential for some
localized convergence through daybreak. But upon the conclusion
of these, conditions will begin to improve as at all other
terminals with VFR conditions anticipated to return by the end
of the 18z cycle.

Winds will begin the period prevailing out of the southwest at
sustained speeds ranging from about 8-12 kt. By tomorrow,
though, winds will shift to the northwest behind the front and
become breezy with sustained speeds ranging from 10-15 kt and
gusts up to 25 kt.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...12