Utica, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

212
FXUS61 KBGM 260914
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
514 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for portions of Central NY
and Northeast Pennsylvania until 9am this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures remain warm through mid week.

2) A cold front pushes through the region with showers and
thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon across the Southern
Tier and Northeast Pennsylvania. In the wake of the front,
cooler temperatures are forecast for the end of the week and
into the weekend under dry NW flow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure is building overhead tonight and with the wet
antecedent conditions, fog was already developing just after
midnight. Continued Radiational cooling and light winds will
lead to areas of dense fog through the early morning hours.
Confidence is still too low on how widespread dense fog will be,
but an SPS or possibly a dense fog advisory may be needed for
the morning commute.

The next couple of days will be pristine early summer days with
ample sunshine, warm temperatures, and lower humidity as dry
air continues to advect in from the north.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Our next chance for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be Wednesday afternoon and evening. A cold
front will push through the region moves through. North of the
Southern Tier, enough dry air may be in place to limit any
shower activity, but from the Southern Tier on southward, there
could be just enough moisture for scattered afternoon storms.
Capped PoPs below 40 percent for now due to low confidence at
this time.

Friday into Saturday is still being watched as a high amplitude
shortwave with a pocket of cold air dives south out of Canada
into our region. Even though this shortwave will have plenty of
lift, it wont have much moisture so while rain chances have
increased, potential QPF is on the low end, likely less than a
quarter inch for most of the region. Still given how small the
pocket of cold air is, temperatures have not been decreased a
whole lot yet and will keep lows in the 40s for now. Frost and
freeze potential is unlikely even in the colder models as a
surface low moving in with the shortwave will keep winds
elevated and the boundary layer well mixed. With an Omega block
setting up for the US, the Northeast will remain under
persistent troughiness, so cooler weather is more likely than
not headed into the beginning of June. Luckily this means highs
in the 60s rather than 50s as climatological highs are now
approaching the low to mid 70s for June.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure continues to build over the area, resulting in
calming conditions overnight that will help support the
development of fog for all terminals. ELM is the first to see
conditions deteriorate, and all terminals are expected to see
conditions fall to IFR or LIFR, with exception to SYR, through
at least 12z this morning. SYR has the lowest confidence of
falling below MVFR conditions as fog develops. After 12/13z, all
terminals are expected to improve to VFR through the rest of
the TAF period.

Outlook:


Tuesday afternoon through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Friday Night and Saturday...Chance for scattered showers and
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ022>025-
     036-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/KL/MPK
AVIATION...KL