Monroe, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

922
FXUS62 KGSP 261032
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
632 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to forecast thinking over the next week.

Confidence increasing for near-record or record high temperatures
Friday and for generally insignificant precipitation, followed by a
dry weekend.

Still low confidence on possible precipitation Monday and beyond,
but increasing confidence on a warming trend in that timeframe.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Cloudy but dry weather continues through Friday morning,
and temperatures continue their warming trend.
2. Record high temperatures possible Friday ahead of another
cold front. The front brings a chance of showers late Friday and
Friday night.
3. Cool, dry high pressure is expected to bring a precipitation
free weekend, and freezing temperatures to some of the mountains
and foothills Saturday and Sunday mornings. Very low relative
humidity is likely to worsen fire weather conditions.
4. Warm and somewhat more humid conditions return Monday through
the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Cloudy but dry weather continues through Friday
morning, and temperatures continue their warming trend.

Weakly diffluent NW upper flow continues across the Carolinas on
the periphery of a blocking ridge centered over northern Mexico
and the Desert Southwest.  Ripples of moisture are evident on
water vapor imagery and delineate a stream of weak upper forcing
rounding this ridge.  As of around 6 AM, a bank of thick altocu
had developed across the Upstate within SSW flow curling around
off of the Atlantic.

Little change is expected to this pattern overnight, or by
day Thursday.  However, the steady WAA in the low levels will
continue to increase sfc-to-850mb thickness values...resulting
in afternoon highs creeping into the upper 70s, or even isolated
low 80s.  Through Thursday night, stronger upper forcing within a
broad confluent zone aloft will drive a cold front south across the
Mid-Atlantic.  Operational guidance is in decent agreement that by
daybreak Friday, it`ll be positioned to our north...extending from
the Cumberland Plateau to the Delmarva Peninsula.  This should
keep winds elevated and more or less due westerly overnight,
resulting in a degree of downsloping even during the overnight
and keeping Friday morning lows some 15 degrees above climo.


Key message 2: Record high temperatures possible Friday ahead of
another cold front. The front brings a chance of showers late
Friday and Friday night.

Cold front will push thru the southern parts of the Ohio Valley
Friday, driven by a broad but amplifying shortwave digging over
the northeastern CONUS. Though heights will begin to fall during
the day, owing to the flat but strong ridge centered over the
Rio Grande, the lower troposphere will be exceptionally warm
for this time of year. Low to midlevels have a dry/subsident
look on prog soundings over our area and immediately upstream in
the hours prior to the fropa. We are still forecasting a record
high at CLT and GSP with KAVL only off by a couple of degrees,
and if winds are slightly more backed than currently expected the
record could be in jeopardy there also. Flow preceding the front
will be westerly and appreciable moisture return is not expected
prior to its reaching the northwest CWA Friday afternoon, but
the soundings briefly saturate once cooling occurs aloft. We will
continue to advertise likely PoP along the TN/NC border in late
afternoon. Downsloping appears to consume some of the moisture
and synoptic model and CAM output does not carry the QPF response
much east of the mountains. A brief window for deep convection is
however suggested when the front reaches the Piedmont via cooling
temps aloft, though SB/MUCAPE are still rather unimpressive at
only a few hundred joules at most among guidance members; CCLs/LCLs
will be rather high. Can`t entirely rule out a rumble of thunder,
but overall thunder chance is too low to mention. The convective
signal is strongest east of I-77 after sunset Friday evening,
and the peak PoPs for that area are at that time.


Key message 3: Cool, dry high pressure is expected to bring a
precipitation free weekend, and freezing temperatures to some of
the mountains and foothills Saturday and Sunday mornings. Very
low relative humidity is likely to worsen fire weather conditions.

Rapid cooling will occur Friday night following the front,
particularly in the mountains. Moisture in the upslope layer
diminishes too fast to expect precip to change from rain before
ending. A freeze is likely in high elevations and across lower
elevations of our northern mountain zones; mins east of the
mountains will return to only slightly above normal. It probably
will be too dry for any frost. Wind gusts within a few mph of
advisory criteria are possible across the mountains; certainly
gusty but well below criteria otherwise. Gusts will taper off
during Saturday morning as gradient begins to relax. Max temps
Saturday are expected to be on the order of 25 degrees cooler than
Friday, a few degrees below normal. Surface high should center north
of the CWA Saturday night leading to light winds and strong
radiational cooling. A freeze again appears likely for portions of
the mountains and possibly including some of the NC foothills; with
low-level flow turning southeasterly some moisture may return and
frost is somewhat more possible where temps fall into the mid 30s.
The first group of zones in the spring frost-freeze program (GA/SC
zones outside the mountains and southern tier of NC Piedmont zones)
do not activate until April 1, so any frost/freeze Fri or Sat nights
would not warrant watches/warnings/advisories. Temperatures and
dewpoints both will rebound somewhat on Sunday owing to the
developing southerly flow, but RH still is expected to dip below 25
percent over most areas.

With diurnal mixing in the dry post-frontal airmass, RH should
easily fall below 20 percent Saturday afternoon, but as of now
it appears the lowering RH is not likely to overlap with enough
wind to objectively justify a meteorologically based Fire Danger
Statement or Red Flag Warning. We are aware some fire officials
are expressing concern about drying fuels, and for example the SC
Forestry Commission has already issued a Red Flag Fire Alert to
enhance public awareness of critical fire weather conditions. With
significant precip looking unlikely Friday, similar or worse
conditions to those now are expected to linger through the weekend
across all parts of our service area.


Key message 4: Warm and somewhat more humid conditions return Monday
through the middle of next week.

Surface high drifts off the East Coast late Sunday, and heights rise
aloft from then through Tuesday as upper ridge axis pivots over the
eastern CONUS. Temps trend back several degrees above normal Monday,
with a warming trend continuing through the middle of the week as
the upper ridge migrates to the western Atlantic. Dewpoints will
trend higher via southwesterly return flow, and afternoon RH values
are not expected to be as low as over the weekend. Rainfall still
looks fairly unlikely, however. Wave train will continue across the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes thru this time, with the Gulf open to
that area via flow around the ridge. Models are in poor agreement
as to where fronts and precip might set up in this pattern, but
some ensemble members bring the first weak cold front close enough
to our area to result in slight-chance 15-20% PoPs in our far north
Monday; similar PoPs expand across more of our mountains on Tuesday,
with some members bringing warm-sector convective activity to our
western periphery that day as cyclogenesis occurs in the upper MS
Valley at that time. This trend continues Wednesday as that system
advances, and 20-30% PoPs return to all areas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Generally VFR conditions expected to
continue through the 06z TAF period.  SCT to BKN altocu is in
place across the Upstate and southern Piedmont, with some lower
bases - as low as MVFR - observed in the western Upstate, at KAND
and KCEU.  Steady 4-7kt SW winds at most locations tonight will
become increasingly W/SW after daybreak...and feature gusts of up
to 20kts in the afternoon Thursday.  Afternoon shallow cu field
is expected east of the NC mountains.  Intermittent VFR cloud
cover likely Thursday night.  Cloud cover will increase over the
NC mountains after 12z Friday, but any restrictions won`t develop
until after mid-day.

Outlook: Still a limited case for showers and associated flight
restrictions on Friday evening as a cold front pushes across
the area.  Breezy NW winds will linger through Saturday afternoon.
Dry and VFR conditions return behind the front over the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 03-27

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      85 2020     32 1955     60 1921     11 1955
                                                    1894
   KCLT      85 1950     40 1894     62 1949     19 1955
                                        1944
   KGSP      86 2020     45 2011     60 1921     15 1894
                            1947


RECORDS FOR 04-01

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      83 1974     40 1919     60 1927     20 1923
   KCLT      86 1986     40 1887     64 1998     24 1923
   KGSP      85 2010     45 1965     64 2024     24 1900
                1986
                1910

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

JCW/MPR