Wahpeton, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

931
FXUS63 KFGF 260932
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
432 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early
  evening northwest Minnesota.

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop late this
  afternoon into the evening across southeast North Dakota and
  west central Minnesota with hail, wind, and lightning.

- Well above normal temperatures are expected this week, with
  near record highs today.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 427 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Updated key messages. SPS issued for near critical fire weather
conditions for this afternoon and early evening in northwest
Minnesota where RH values will be in the low to mid 20s percent.
A weak frontal boundary will exist late today from southeast ND
into central MN with mixed layer CAPES 1500-2000 j/kg with risk
of a few storms developing. 0-6 km shear 25 kt range, so
marginal for organized storms and severe weather. Hazards would
be hail 0.50 to 1 inch and wind gusts 45-60 mph.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...Synopsis...

A strengthening mid/upper level ridge is currently extending along
and east of the Northern Rockies into the Canadian Prairies, with
rising heights and west-northwest downslope flow ahead of a frontal
zone supporting well above average temperatures. This ridge will
continue to strengthen and amplify as it becomes centered over our
CWA, persisting into the upcoming weekend, and potentially beyond.
Outside of Tuesday, the probability for measurable precipitation
or thunderstorms is very low.

There are clusters that show ridge weakening some this weekend
into next week, however with the ridge axis remaining centered
over our CWA even the clusters that weaken it the most keep
favorable storm tracks well west of our region, lowering
confidence in measurable precipitation chances in the extended
periods. As the ridge weakens there could be a general "cooling
trend" at least compared to early week, but above average
temperatures remain well established across our CWA into early
June.

...Near critical fire weather conditions...

RH values (aided by temperatures in the lower 90s) have fallen into
the teens to middle 20s across much of our CWA. Winds are highly
variable though as a prefrontal trough axis followed by a front move
through the region. The air mass is technically cooler behind this
front but still very warm. Where fuels are drier/more problematic
near critical fire weather conditions are expected through early
evening. East-southeast flow along a stalled frontal zone will bring
increasing BL Tds into the region Tuesday and Wednesday, which
should keep RH values above 25% for much of our region. The
exception is towards north central MN where there is still a chance
for Tds to mix low enough to support near critical conditions. This
is worth monitoring as both Tuesday and Wednesday feature the
potential for gustier winds than today.

...Isolated strong thunderstorms Tuesday...

CAMs support the signal in global models/ensembles that
scattered thunderstorms should develop as the CAP weakens near
the frontal zone stalled over our CWA late Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday. Steep mid level lapse rates should be in place,
and guidance that favors Tds over 60F also show more robust
thermodynamic profiles and the potential for MUCAPE values to
exceed 2000 J/KG. Shear is trickier as initially weaker flow
under the ridge axis limits effective shear (generally 25kt or
less) and convection may remain more pulsy in nature. However
there is a signal for a building LLJ (mainly in ND) during the
evening hours and hodographs/effective shear 30kt+ and even with
lower CAPE values in the 1000-15000 J/KG this could support a
risk for marginally severe hail, though coverage would be
limited.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Winds will slowly turn to the east through the overnight. Winds
generally 5-10kts but a few spots including KDVL may see
sustained winds to 15kts and gusts up to 25kts tomorrow. CU
while possible will be based around 8-10kft and a non-factor for
operations. Lastly there is a chance for some isolated
thunderstorms after 21z Tuesday but predictability in location
remains low.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...TT