Elyria, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

457
FXUS61 KCLE 060447
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1147 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves in from the northwest tonight and stalls
over Lake Erie on Saturday. A weak low moves along the front on
Sunday, bringing that cold front eastward across the area. High
pressure builds in on Monday before departing to the east coast
on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft exits slowly E`ward
through tonight as a cold front approaches from the Upper
Midwest and eventually the western Great Lakes. Odds favor dry
weather through daybreak Saturday as stabilizing subsidence
accompanies the departing ridge. Lows should reach mainly the
15F to 25F range around midnight tonight. Readings should then
moderate slightly by daybreak as a tightening MSLP gradient
between the surface ridge departing slowly and approaching
front`s surface trough allow S`erly to SW`erly surface winds and
associated low-level WAA to increase somewhat in our CWA.

On Saturday, a shortwave trough should move from the Upper
Midwest and western Great Lakes to the eastern Great Lakes. At
the surface, the cold front should sweep SE`ward across Lake Erie
and NW OH during the afternoon and essentially stall in the same
area by sunset as the attendant trough overspreads our area from the
north and west. Low-level convergence/moist ascent along the cold
front, moist-isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axis,
weak lake-induced CAPE (LICAPE) amidst lake surface to 850 mb T
differences near 10C over ~4C Lake Erie, and the seeder-feeder
process should allow lake-enhanced precip, mainly in the form of
snow and graupel, steady at times per model sounding data, to
develop and stream generally NE`ward over/downwind of Lake Erie into
portions of western NY Saturday morning into early afternoon. During
the late afternoon and early evening, the lake-enhanced precip,
mainly in the form of snow/graupel and steady at times, should shift
S`ward into the primary snowbelt of NE OH/NW PA and vicinity as the
mean low- level flow veers from SW`erly to W`erly and the low/mid-
level thermodynamic environment remains favorable. In addition,
moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axis may
trigger isolated showers in the form of snow and graupel across NE
OH and NW PA Saturday morning through afternoon. Daytime snow
accumulations of 1" or less are expected. Odds favor dry weather
elsewhere. Low-level WAA ahead of the cold front should contribute
to afternoon highs reaching the lower to mid 30`s in our CWA.

Saturday night: aloft, a very subtle shortwave ridge should build
and then crest E`ward over our region as the first shortwave trough
exits E`ward, a second shortwave trough moves SE`ward from the Mid
MO Valley toward the Lower MO Valley and vicinity, and a third
shortwave trough moves SE`ward from the eastern Canadian Prairies
toward the northwestern Great Lakes and vicinity. At the surface,
the aforementioned front should remain essentially stalled in
vicinity of Lake Erie and NW OH as a low attendant to the second
shortwave trough moves from NE to the Lower MO Valley and weakens
slightly, while a low attendant to the third shortwave trough
develops and deepens slightly over the northern Great Lakes.
Primarily dry weather is expected in our CWA as stabilizing
subsidence accompanies the shortwave ridge. However, a sufficiently-
moist mean low-level flow amidst lake surface to 850 mb T
differences near 13C over ~4C Lake Erie and weak LICAPE should allow
lake-effect precip, mainly in the form of snow and graupel and
steady at times per model sounding data, to stream generally E`ward
and then ENE`ward across the primary snowbelt of NE OH/NW PA and
vicinity as mean low-level flow backs from W`erly to WSW`erly ahead
of the aforementioned second and third shortwave trough axes.
Nighttime snow accumulations should be 1" or less. Overnight lows
should reach the 20`s to lower 30`s around daybreak Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Sunday the shortwave trough farther north should move from
the northwestern Great Lakes and Upper MS Valley to the
north-central and southwestern Great Lakes. The attendant
surface low should deepen further, albeit slightly, as it moves
E`ward from the northern Great Lakes toward far-northern NY.
Also at the surface, the front should remain essentially stalled
in vicinity of Lake Erie and NW OH through roughly midday. The
front should then sweep SE`ward and cross the rest of our
region by early evening. This front will usher-in a colder air
mass. Daytime highs should reach the lower to mid 30`s prior to
the arrival of colder air behind the front.

Lingering LES should stream generally NE`ward and then NNE`ward
from Lake Erie Sunday morning through early afternoon as mean
low-level flow backs to SW`erly and then to SSW`erly ahead of
the shortwave trough axis. Low/mid-level moisture advection well
ahead of the shortwave trough axis should allow convergence and
associated ascent along the surface and upper-reaches of the
front to trigger scattered and primarily light snow showers
across our entire CWA. In addition, the seeder-feeder process
and release of weak LICAPE via low-level convergence and ascent
along the front should result in a brief burst of steadier lake-
enhanced snow over Lake Erie and in/near the counties along the
central and eastern portions of the lake. By early evening,
prior to sunset, a NW`erly mean low-level flow of sufficiently-
cold/moist air over/downwind of Lake Erie and weak LICAPE should
allow primarily light lake-effect snow (LES) to stream generally
SE`ward from central and eastern portions of the lake. Daytime
snow accumulations should total 1" or less, but localized totals
up to 2" are possible in the higher terrain of Erie County, PA.

During Sunday night, the shortwave trough axis should move
E`ward to Lake Ontario and central PA as a shortwave ridge
builds from the north-central U.S. At the surface, the low
should move from far-northern NY to the Gulf of Maine and be
followed by a surface ridge building from the Upper Midwest and
vicinity. Primarily dry weather is expected as stabilizing
subsidence accompanies the ridge. As mean low-level flow veers
from NW`erly to NNE`erly amidst weak LICAPE, lingering and
light LES should stream generally SE`ward, then S`ward, and
eventually SSW`ward before dissipating by daybreak as LICAPE
wanes via a lowering subsidence inversion and synoptic low-level
dry air advection. Additional snow accumulations are forecast to
be 1" or less. Low-level CAA behind the front should contribute
to lows reaching mainly the 10F to lower 20`s range by daybreak
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Monday through Monday night, current odds favor dry weather
since the above-mentioned ridge at the surface and aloft should
continue to build from the west on Monday and then crest E`ward
over our CWA and vicinity Monday night. Along the backside of
the ridge, a moisture-starved warm front should sweep NE`ward
through our region Monday night. Continued CAA at the surface
and aloft on Monday will contribute to afternoon highs reaching
only the 20`s to 30F. Monday evening, lows are expected to reach
mainly the 5F to 15F range. Readings should begin to moderate
by the predawn hours of Tuesday morning given the development of
WAA at the surface and aloft ahead of and behind the warm front.

Large discrepancies in NWP model guidance exist Tuesday through
Friday of the upcoming week, leading to low confidence in the
official forecast. In general, cyclonic and primarily W`erly to
NW`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances should
affect our region. At the surface, net troughing should impact
northern OH and NW PA. We should remain in the relatively-warm
sector through Tuesday night before a cold front sweeps
generally E`ward through our region on Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Northern OH and NW PA should then remain in the
cold sector through Friday. Daytime highs should reach mainly
the mid to upper 30`s on Tuesday and the mid 30`s to lower 40`s
on Wednesday, prior to the cold front passage. In between,
overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 20`s to lower 30`s
around daybreak Wednesday. Later in the week, overnight lows
should reach the 20`s around daybreak Thursday and be followed
by afternoon highs in the lower to mid 30`s. Lows around 15F to
25F around daybreak Friday should be followed by afternoon highs
in the mid to upper 20`s amidst CAA at the surface and aloft,
behind the cold front.

Periods of primarily snow are expected due to the following:
moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axes;
convergence and moist ascent along surface trough axes and the
cold front. Snow accumulations are possible, but uncertain at
this juncture. Moderation of the tropospheric column at/near the
surface should allow snow to mix with or change to rain at times
on Tuesday through Wednesday evening. In addition, behind the
cold front, the environment should support LES occurrence overnight
Wednesday night through Friday, but all of the following remain
very uncertain: mean low-level flow direction; LES placement,
intensity, and amounts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions are observed areawide. A stratus deck with non-
VFR ceilings reside just to our southeast should remain out of
our forecast area, although there is a low chance these ceilings
could extend northward further than expected into KCAK and KYNG
during the pre-dawn hours.

A cold front approaches from the northwest and settles over Lake
Erie on Saturday. Ahead of the front, should see overcast VFR
conditions gradually lower towards MVFR late Saturday morning
into the early afternoon hours. Confidence is fairly high in IFR
ceilings occurring across central and east-central Ohio
(including KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG) but it`s a bit lower towards
the north and west. IFR may be needed at KCLE/KERI sites
depending on how model guidance trends. Snow is most likely
along the eastern shoreline of Lake Erie, especially east of
Willowick and near Erie, PA where 1-2 SM with lake effect snow
is expected after ~20Z. Some models have a few isolated light
snow showers and/or light freezing drizzle with the front
elsewhere but kept them out of the TAF for now.

Light southwest winds over the next few hours will increase to
around 8-12 knots tonight before diminishing to 5 knots or less
after sunset on Saturday.

Outlook...Periods of IFR is expected areawide with widespread
light snow on Sunday. Non-VFR is expected again with snow on
Tuesday and a rain/snow mix on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds increase 15-25kts ahead of a Saturday cold front,
becoming westerly after 15Z Saturday and wave heights Cleveland and
east becoming 3-5ft. Winds ease briefly Saturday night, then Sunday
back to around 10-20kts out of the northwest and wave heights 3-5ft
once again. Winds/wave heights variable through Monday night
becoming southwesterly Tuesday increasing to 20-30kts, keeping them
just sub-gale for now as a deepening area of low pressure
approaches.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...26