Chickasha, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

029
FXUS64 KOUN 261053
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
553 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 535 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- Thunderstorm chances increase this morning across western north
  Texas and will spread eastward through the day. A strong storm
  or two may produce small hail and gusty winds.

- Daily rain and storm chances will continue through next weekend
  across portions of the area. Strong storms may be possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

The southern periphery of a mid-level wave will move closer to
the southern Plains today, as the larger scale trough moves
southward along the California coast. Height falls attendant to
the base of the trough will give way to increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms across far southwestern Oklahoma and
western north Texas beginning this morning. Precipitation chances
will spread eastward and increase through the day. A few of these
storms may be strong, with gusty winds and small hail and the
primary hazards.

Increasing cloud cover from west to east through the day will
keep afternoon highs a few degrees cooler than Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

The southern edge of the aforementioned mid-level trough will
detach and become more of a shortwave by Tuesday evening into
Wednesday. Additional large scale ascent associated with this
feature will help maintain thunderstorm chances through Wednesday
across much of the area. As the shortwave moves into Kansas, the
precipitation chances will shift the north. Given the instability,
there is a chance that a few storms on Wednesday may be strong
enough to produce small hail. With increased cloud cover and rain
chances on Wednesday, highs will generally stay in the upper 70s
to low 80s.

Height rises are expected Thursday in the wake of the shortwave
trough. In turn, this may limit precipitation chances through the
latter half of the day. Cloud cover will stick around during the
morning and will slowly clear out during the afternoon. Afternoon
highs on Thursday will be a few degrees warmer than on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Another weak shortwave will move across the southern Plains
Friday, which will provide enough lift for thunderstorms late
Friday into Saturday (from west to east). Beyond Friday, there is
a little more uncertainty regarding the pattern across the
southern Plains. The larger scale trough across the western US is
expected to lift into northern portions of the US. Across our
area, there may be weak mid- level perturbations which will
promote additional thunderstorm chances through the weekend. Other
model solutions would suggest mid- level ridging, which promotes
dry and warmer weather. For now, will keep the mention of
thunderstorms through the weekend until models are in better
agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Increasing scattered shower and storm chances through the day
today from southwest to northeast. PROB30s were included given the
scattered nature of storms. Any storms that develop will be
capable of gusty and erratic winds. Storm chances will continue
overnight tonight with a potential line or cluster of storms
moving east northeast across the area. Once again a PROB30 was
utilized for now given the uncertainty in exact timing and
location of the storms during the overnight hours. Ceilings may
drop overnight with storms and remain MVFR to IFR ceilings through
Wednesday morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  84  64  78  64 /  40  60  70  70
Hobart OK         83  61  79  61 /  50  90  50  60
Wichita Falls TX  83  63  81  63 /  70  90  40  40
Gage OK           83  58  76  59 /  40  80  80  60
Ponca City OK     84  63  81  64 /  10  20  70  70
Durant OK         85  68  80  67 /  30  70 100  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...23