Lawton, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

827
FXUS64 KOUN 261104
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
604 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 141 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- Fire weather conditions will be up to Critical this afternoon
  into the evening and again but Near Critical Friday afternoon.

- Strong winds through Friday possible behind a strong cold front
  coming through tonight.

- Hot today potentially breaking temperature records but
  cooler/mild Friday and Saturday.

- Low chances for rain or an elevated storm Thursday night across
  far northern OK.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A final afternoon of hot potential record breaking temperatures,
fire weather, and gusty winds will be the main weather issues and/or
hazards starting later this morning.  A Red Flag Warning will be in
effect later this morning into the evening hour across all but
southeastern Oklahoma.

Surface winds this morning will be veering due south with a
tightening pressure gradient resulting in sustained wind speeds of 20-
25 mph by the afternoon.  A strong southerly low-level jet will be
increasing this morning only weakening slightly this afternoon. Late
morning mixing into the jet will result in wind gusts between 30-40
mph well into the afternoon and possibly staying mixed & gusty into
the evening should decoupling not occur.  Not quite confident enough
for a Wind Advisory for these pre-frontal winds but may need to be
issued short-fused if needed.  Moisture advection over the last 24-
hours has formed a broad dryline across the eastern halves of the
OK/TX Panhandles with this broad line advancing eastward into our
western CWA resulting in very low RH values during the afternoon.
The combination of gustier winds and drier hot air will increase
fire weather conditions this afternoon with an Elevated to Critical
risk across all of western & northern Oklahoma into portions of
central Oklahoma and western north Texas all within the
aforementioned Red Flag Warning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A cold front was currently stretched across the U.S. Northern Plains
& Great Lakes regions being steered by a weather system in Eastern
Canada.  This front will continue pushing across the Great Plains
into the afternoon hours and strengthen over Kansas just prior to
pushing into northern Oklahoma Thursday evening.  Models consistent
over the last several runs with 40-50+ mph gusts behind the front.
As a result will issue a Wind Advisory early Friday morning across
all but our southeastern CWA and extend it through the entire
afternoon. This may make traveling difficult especially in high
profiled vehicles on Friday due strong north crosswinds over east to
west aligned roadways such as I-40 & TX 287.  The strong winds will
also increase fire weather conditions Friday afternoon as well
although a Near Critical risk trimmed further west mainly in western
Oklahoma. A post-frontal shortwave in the mid-levels digging across
southern Kansas could produce some rain or even an elevated
thunderstorm just south of the state line so still have low (up to
30%) POPs in the forecast across northern Oklahoma for Thursday
night. Also added post-frontal rain sprinkles across much of our
area after sunrise Friday into the afternoon due to a second
potential mid-level shortwave coming off the panhandles.  Still not
seeing any strong cooling behind this cold front with the surface
high tracking across the Great Plains into the Midwest. However NBM
was warm-biased with cooling as well as dense cloud cover so went
cooler just below normal for Fridays MaxT using the CONSMOS.

Expecting our strong winds to decrease by Friday night as the
surface high starts settling into the Midwest. South winds will be
gradually returning Saturday with mild seasonably normal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Becoming windy Sunday through Tuesday prior to a mid-week cold front
next week.  Becoming warmer each day under an upper ridge building
out of the Southeastern U.S.  The gusty south winds and warm very
dry air coming off the TX/OK Panhandles will again increase fire
weather conditions each afternoon with the highest fire danger
risked area mainly across our west.  A 15-20% probability for
thunderstorms across northwest Oklahoma Monday night from a mid-
level disturbance coming off the Southern High Plains.  However rain
chances may be increasing toward the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast period,
but MVFR ceilings are expected to spread into the area from the
north after 04Z or so tonight.

Winds will increase from the south/southwest today with gusts
between 30 and 40 knots. Winds may relax slightly this evening
ahead of a cold front that will move through the area, but
north/northeast winds will increase with gusts of 25 to 40 knots
after the front moves through.

Low-level wind shear will redevelop in many areas overnight near
and behind the cold front as strong southwest winds are expected
above the cold air intrusion with the front, at least until the
colder air deepens and the winds aloft become northeasterly as
well. This wind shear will be maximized in most areas just after
the front moves through with gusty north/northeasterly winds at
the surface and southwesterly winds above the surface.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  92  51  58  41 /   0   0  10   0
Hobart OK         95  49  59  40 /   0   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  93  55  64  47 /   0   0  10  10
Gage OK           99  43  60  34 /   0  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     95  47  60  35 /   0  30   0   0
Durant OK         87  60  68  50 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ004>031-033>040-044-045.

     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Friday for
     OKZ004>031-033>042-044>046-050.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ083>090.

     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Friday for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...26