Bluffton, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

646
FXUS62 KCHS 261056
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
656 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Temperatures warm to near-record values on Friday.

- 2) A dry cold front will move through our region Friday night,
  bringing cooler temperatures.

- 3) Gusty winds may prompt a Lake Wind Advisory for Moultrie Friday
  night into Saturday morning.

- 4) Very dry conditions and breezy winds will bring elevated fire
  weather concerns on Saturday.

- 5) Dry conditions next week with temperatures rising well
  above normal again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures build to near-record warmth on Friday.

Satellite water vapor indicated a large ridge centered over the
TX/Mexico this morning. Mid-level heights will build east across the
forecast area today and tonight. Once morning stratus and fog
dissipates, temperatures should warm rapidly to around 80 degrees by
mid-day. A weak sea breeze should advance inland this afternoon,
with highs forecast to range from the upper 70s to around 80 across
the coastal counties to the mid 80s across inland GA. Conditions
will remain dry today.

Tonight through Friday, the forecast area will remain between high
pressure centered over FL and a backdoor cold front approaching from
the north. This pattern should yield steady southwest winds across
the region, providing weak WAA through the period. The southwest
winds should keep the sea breeze generally pinned along the coast
through the daylight hours. Given sunny conditions, mild llvl
thicknesses, and southwest winds, conditions will be favorable for
record or near-record high temperatures on Friday. High temperatures
in the upper 80s to around 90 should be common across SE GA and SC
Lowcountry, see Climate Section below. In addition, it is possible
that rounds of sea fog may drift over the beaches, especially Friday
morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A dry cold front will move through our region Friday
night, bringing cooler temperatures.

The mid-levels will consist of troughing developing to our north
Friday night, causing heights overhead to lower. At the surface, a
cold front will be located to our west and northwest in the evening.
It`ll quickly move southeast, through our area around or just after
midnight, zooming well offshore by daybreak Saturday. High pressure
will then start building in from the northwest early Saturday. All
of the models show the front weakening before it gets to our area
along with drying out. Frontal passage across our area should be
dry, so no precipitation is in the forecast. Though, temperatures
will be cooler behind the front due to cold air advection. High
temperatures on Saturday should range from the mid to upper 60s,
which is several degrees below normal.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Gusty winds may prompt a Lake Wind Advisory for
Moultrie Friday night into Saturday morning.

A dry cold front will quickly move southeast through our area around
or just after midnight, zooming well offshore by daybreak Saturday.
High pressure will then start building in from the northwest early
Saturday. The combination of cold air advection and pressure rises
will lead to gusty northerly winds over Lake Moultrie late Friday
night into Saturday morning. Gusts could peak around 30 kt near
daybreak Saturday. The highest waves will be across southern
portions of the lake. A Lake Wind Advisory may be needed.

KEY MESSAGE 4: Very dry conditions and breezy winds will bring
elevated fire weather concerns on Saturday.

A dry cold front will be offshore at daybreak on Saturday.
Meanwhile, High pressure will start building in from the northwest
early Saturday, with the center passing far to our north late
Saturday. The High will usher significantly drier conditions into
our area. However, models don`t appear to have it dry enough, which
is typical with this type of spring pattern. Therefore, we went much
drier than guidance. Dew points should drop into the upper teens and
20s across most inland areas. This will cause afternoon RH values to
drop into the mid/upper teens very far inland, while generally being
in the low/mid 20s across most of our area, with higher values
at/near the beaches.

Additionally, cold air advection and pressure rises from the High
will lead to gusty northerly winds. The strongest gusts will be in
the morning, peaking in the 25-30 mph range across our SC counties
and the 20-25 mph range across our GA counties. Winds should
gradually ease into the afternoon, which is when RH values will
really drop. So the strongest winds and lowest RH values probably
won`t line up. We`ll need to touch base with our local fire weather
partners to get fuel input. Either way, everything that was just
mentioned along with the ongoing drought will lead to elevated fire
weather concerns on Saturday. A Fire Danger Statement may be needed.

KEY MESSAGE 5: Dry conditions next week with temperatures rising
well above normal again.

Mid-level ridging will prevail over the Southeast U.S. most of next
week while surface High pressure is in the western Atlantic. This
pattern will continue to bring dry conditions to our area. High
temperatures will be slightly below normal on Sunday, then rise
above normal on Monday. The warming trend continues Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Prior to the 12Z TAFs, IR satellite indicated an expanding area
of stratus just south of the KSAV terminal. Based on satellite
trends and latest observations, the TAF will indicate 6SM due to
ground fog. The fog should dissipate by 13Z. High resolution
guidance indicates that a weak sea breeze is timed push across
the KSAV terminal by 19Z, shifting winds from the south.

KCHS and KJZI, conditions early this morning will feature calm winds
with thin cloud cover. Some degree of ground fog is possible at both
terminals at the onset of the 12Z TAFs, slight more favorable
at KJZI. The fog should dissipate by 13Z. VFR conditions
expected through the rest of the TAF period. High resolution
guidance indicates that a weak sea breeze is timed push across
the terminals by 18Z, shifting winds from the south.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. Expect gusty winds behind a dry cold
front on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today, the pattern will support light northeast winds this morning.
A weak sea breeze should develop this afternoon, in the wake of the
sea breeze winds are forecast to shift from the southeast. Wave
heights are forecast to range from 2 to 4 ft.

Tonight into Friday, the marine zones will remain between high
pressure centered over FL and a backdoor cold front approaching from
the north. This pattern should yield steady south winds across the
coastal waters, advecting dewpoints in the low to mid 60s across the
marine zones. Buoy observations indicate that nearshore water
temperatures ranged from the upper 50s to around 60. Forecast
soundings indicate that the WAA will create an inversion over the
nearshore waters between 300-500 ft tonight. High resolution
guidance indicates that sea fog may develop over the GA waters late
this evening, expanding north across the SC waters tonight. Any fog
that develops may linger into Friday afternoon. HREF probs for
visibility of 0.5 miles or less will increase to 50-60 percent late
tonight across the Atlantic waters. Otherwise, conditions will
feature SSW winds between 10 to 15 kts with 3-4 ft seas.

Extended Marine: Southerly winds ushering deep moisture over the
relatively cooler shelf waters could bring an increased risk of sea
fog on Friday. A dry cold front will be located to our west and
northwest Friday evening, causing increased southerly winds, which
would help to dissipate any sea fog. The front will quickly move
southeast, through our coastal waters just after midnight, zooming
well offshore by daybreak Saturday. High pressure will then start
building in from the northwest early Saturday, then shift off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast into Sunday. Expect gale conditions across all of
our Atlantic waters early Saturday (near gales for the Charleston
Harbor), followed by near gale conditions later Saturday into early
Sunday. Conditions will further improve on Monday. Though, seas
could stay elevated across the GA waters beyond 20 nm into
Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 27:
KCHS: 87/2021
KCXM: 81/2021
KSAV: 89/2021

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$