Florence, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

550
FXUS62 KILM 260633
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
233 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes coming down the track as we approach 3 AM EDT.
Updated aviation discussion below for the 06Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Scattered showers and storms possible over northeast SC today.

- 2) Warming trend kicks in Monday, peaking on Tuesday.

- 3) Another cold front comes in Tuesday night, bringing more
  organized showers and storms. Some storms could be strong or
  severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and storms possible over
northeast SC today.

Latest surface analysis shows the old frontal boundary snaking its
way through the Charleston area and offshore. This front is expected
to float back and forth between this current location and in parts
of northeast SC. Meanwhile, vertically stacked shortwaves will
traverse across northeast SC from the NNW. This will allow for
scattered showers and storms to pop up in this area today. In
particular, it appears that there could be two separate rounds. One
is currently making its way through upstate SC and parts of the
Midlands, and is expected to make its way down the Pee Dee region
and Grand Strand later this morning. Another round is expected late
this afternoon into this evening. Storm motions look a hair too fast
to promote flooding, but if there is training or backbuilding,
isolated flooding cannot be ruled out. The activity should level off
by 9-10 PM tonight. Highs in the mid 80s, lows tonight in the lower
70s.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming trend kicks in Monday, peaking on Tuesday.

Drier air seeps into the mid-levels Monday and Tuesday, bringing an
end to the organized showers and storms we`ve seen over the last few
days. Only scattered showers and storms are possible in the
afternoon, mostly due to the seabreeze. Less convection and clouds
means that heat is on the rise again. Triple digit heat indices
return by Monday, becoming much more widespread on Tuesday. We might
be looking at another Heat Advisory Tuesday, which is expected to be
the hottest day of the week.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...Another cold front comes in Tuesday night, bringing
more organized showers and storms. Some storms could be strong or
severe.

Next organized rain and storm chances come in Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning with the next front. This front misses out on the
diurnal heating, but it appears the extra moisture and buoyancy that
gets injected in the atmosphere will provide energy for potentially
strong to severe storms. Strong winds would likely be the biggest
concern here. These storms could also produce a lot of lightning at
times.

Front pushes offshore later Wednesday, where diurnal showers and
storms become more of the theme again through the remainder of the
work week. The front may retrograde back towards the coast,
potentially adding more rain chances next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mixed bag of VFR down to IFR to open the 06Z TAF period. Generally,
low stratus expected to become a growing trend over the next several
hours, with perhaps some fog in between. KFLO and KLBT stand the
greatest chance at prolonged IFR restrictions through 13Z or so.
Expecting more of a MVFR trend along the coastal terminals. Even
after the IFR lifts, MVFR is expected to stick around over the
inland terminals through much of the AM hours. Meanwhile, convection
stirring over upstate SC may try to make its way down towards KFLO
later this morning. Threw in a TEMPO group from 08-12Z to account
for possible TSRA. Another round of convection is possible for the
inland terminals sometime in the 20-24Z range this evening. Heading
into tonight, winds calm again, and the period ends in VFR (for now).

Extended Forecast...More restrictions from fog looking more likely
late Sunday night into Monday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail with relatively brief flight restrictions from diurnal
convection Monday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Sunday through Thursday...Old frontal boundary is now south of the
waters. It may retrograde back towards the northeast SC waters at
times today, but makes an overall movement out of the area. This
will keep winds rather variable and generally under 10 kts through
Monday. The exception will be within scattered storms that may
impact coastal waters off the northeast SC coast during the day
today. Winds turn from SE Monday to SW Tuesday, through remaining
relatively light. Seas around 2-3 ft out to 60nm through early
Tuesday, primarily due to E swell with weak wind chop mixed in.

Winds and seas increase during the day Tuesday as a front approaches
from the northwest and low level winds strengthen ahead of a trough.
SW winds peak around 20 kts Tuesday night, with gusts around 25 kts
out to 20 nm and 30 kts gusts out to 60 nm. In response, seas
increase to 4-5 ft with the building southerly wind wave, also
peaking Tuesday night. Scattered storms will move offshore late
Tuesday and Tuesday night, particularly off the Cape Fear coast.
Southwest winds and seas slowly improve during the day Wednesday
before the front moves offshore later in the day/Wed night, followed
by benign marine conditions.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB