Amarillo, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

109
FXUS64 KAMA 261123
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
623 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Critical fire weather conditions today will create dangerous
conditions for wildfires to spread rapidly. Strong winds behind
tonight`s cold front are expected to exasperate efforts on
ongoing fires.

Abnormally hot temperatures may create hazardous outdoor
conditions today, as widespread 100s are forecast for the
combined panhandle. The Palo Duro Canyon may experience surface
temperatures as hot as 106 degrees.

Strong winds behind tonight`s cold front may create hazardous
driving conditions overnight and blow around loose objects.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Latest high resolution model runs continue to see a strong 850mb
jet settle over Panhandles during the overnight hours of tonight
into Friday morning. Current trends continue seeing good
efficiency for this jet`s wind making down to the surface with
potential to see northerly winds of 25 to 35 mph with gust upwards
of 55 mph. Given this a Wind Advisory has been issued for the
combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles starting at 1 AM Friday and
lasting until 7 PM Friday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

With regards to high temperatures today, the global models look to
keep under representing the 00Z 850 mb temperatures. Yesterday`s 18Z
CAMs look to have a more representative view of how hot it can get
this afternoon, compare to how we verified yesterday. Most likely,
temperatures for many locations in the combined panhandles will soar
past 100 degrees. The Palo Duro Canyon will also likely surpass 105,
which led to another Heat Advisory being issued for this afternoon
and evening. Surface winds will also be quiet strong this afternoon
from the southwest. A Red Flag warning has already been issued for
the entire CWA. For more details, see the FIRE WEATHER discussion.

Late this afternoon and into the evening, a slight chance for
showers is present in the Oklahoma Panhandle and far northern
Texas Panhandle. New 00Z data is showing more consistency of at
least 20 dBZ reflectivity in our northern zones. QPF will likely
remain light if any rain can make it to the ground. Of course, if
any of these showers can become thunderstorms, dry lightning will
become the primary threat. Chances for showers are not expected to
linger much past 10 PM.

By the start of the evening, around 6-8 PM, short term models
suggest the cold front will be arriving in the Oklahoma Panhandle.
This strong front is expected to bring even stronger winds overnight
compared to the speeds archived in the afternoon. At the time of this
writing, a Wind Advisory is under deliberation and may be need for
portions of the panhandles. Sustained winds may be near or above 35
mph for several hours starting early Friday morning. Gusts should
reach as high as 50 mph, with a low chance for a few locations to
reach 60 mph.

With overwhelming cold air advection, high temperatures will sharply
drop in the wake of the front. High tomorrow should range from the
mid 50s to lower 60s. This may result in places experiencing a +40
degree difference in a 24 hour period. Surface winds should remain
strong and northeasterly throughout the day and finally subside in
the night time hours.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Model guidance continues to show high pressure shifting east in the
long term period. By Monday of next week, the high pressure center
should be over the southeast CONUS. H500 zonal flow will remain over
our CWA until we can introduce additional troughs.

Warm air is expected to slowly resurge into the panhandles on
Saturday, but temperatures should still be mild with highs in the
60s and 70s. As high pressure exits, the pressure gradient is
expected to tighten at the surface. Surface winds on Saturday should
begin as light, but as they veer back to southwesterly flow, they`ll
increase again in the afternoon.

Sunday onward, warm air advection will help surface temperatures
climb back into the 80s. Currently, a few locations may also reach
the 90s, but model trends continues to favor 90 degree highs for
greater portions of the region. These kinds of high temperatures
should hold through Tuesday. Long range models are starting to
converge on a cold front move across the panhandles by Wednesday.
Moisture continues to shift eastward into western Oklahoma next
week, which is causing more model ensemble members to remove QPF
from our CWA. Late in the extended period the NBM is also reducing
PoPs. We`ll need to watch and see if these trends hold; because
without quality moisture moving into the area, the hot and breezy
weather conditions will only exasperate our fire weather concerns as
we head into April.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

As of early this morning, winds at the surface have already begun
picking up with reports of southwesterly gust around 20kt. Speeds
are expected to pick up throughout the day but should remain below
35kt through the afternoon. However, the arrival of a cold front
later tonight will likely see these northerly winds speeds to
increase dramatically with highest likely to occur after midnight.
Otherwise, the dry conditions should keep terminals VFR through
the package.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Critical fire weather conditions continue to worsen as we lead up
to the afternoon hours today. The window for critical fire weather
today may start as early as the late morning and linger through
the night until the cold front arrives. Max RFTI values now are up
to 5 for many areas today, as the forecast for temperatures are
higher, wind speeds are higher, and dewpoints are lower. Widespread
100s, Min RH as low as 5%, and 20 kt surface winds will create
near extreme conditions at times due to how dry our fuels are.

There is some marginal concern about the instability in play
today. For much of the Texas Panhandle, there should be enough CIN
to prevent potential pyrocumulus from forming. However, further
north into the Oklahoma Panhandle, the atmosphere is expected to
become uncapped by the late afternoon. This means that we cannot
rule out pyrocumulus from wildfires in our northern zones. This
paired with low-end chances for thunderstorms in those areas
today could also mean that dry lightning can start fires if
enough SBCAPE can be realized from the environment. Despite very
low RH values at the surface today, upper level moisture may be
enough to help support condensation and cumulus growth.

RH recovery will be quick behind the front as it moves in tonight.
However, wind speeds will increase greatly as well. The strongest
winds (+35 mph sustained) will likely occur between 3 AM and 10 AM
Friday. Any ongoing fires will be difficult to put out despite
the RH recovery. Fire spread will suddenly become southerly as the
front moves through.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ001>020-317.

     Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ001>020-317.

     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ001>003.

     Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...11