Austin, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

487
FXUS64 KEWX 260619
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
119 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active and unsettled weather pattern to return Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday with localized flooding issues possible.

- Warmer and drier weather looks possible by late week.

- Rain chances return over the weekend as we turn the calendar to
  June.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Regional radar imagery shows lingering showers and storms over the
Coastal Plains and Brazos Valley. These should weaken with loss of
diurnal heating. Meanwhile, out west, model CAMs are in agreement
that some showers and isolated storms will develop and move across
the Rio Grande early Tuesday morning. Any showers or storms should
weaken and dissipate by mid-morning, allowing the atmosphere to
destabilize rather quickly Tuesday afternoon. 00Z hi-res guidance,
from the HRRR, to the RRFS, and the FV3/NSSL WRF agree that storms
organize out west over the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains as
early as 19Z, then march eastward as a complex or MCS moves through
south central Texas. SPC has a level 1 to 2 of 5 risk for severe
storms along and west of US-281 Tuesday afternoon and evening. The
primary hazards are large hail and damaging winds. In addition to
the severe threat, WPC places the majority of our region within a
Slight risk (Level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall that could lead to
flash flooding. Despite storm movement likely being rather
progressive, saturated soils and additional rainfall will likely
result in runoff than be absorbed. Any storms should exit the area
near or just shortly after sunrise Wednesday. Additional showers and
an isolated storm cannot be ruled out Wednesday afternoon, but the
forecast should be dry beyond 18Z Wednesday through the remainder of
the short term forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Thursday looks to be a drier day with weak shortwave ridging noted
on the GFS and ECMWF, but the dry forecast is short-lived. An active
pattern continues into the weekend and early June as a strong west-
southwesterly jet streak at 300mb works through the region. This
will result in widespread lift as upper-level divergence spreads
over south central Texas this weekend. Scattered showers and storms
are expected both Saturday and Sunday followed by the potential for
ridging to return for the first couple days of June. For now,
confidence beyond the weekend is rather low, so stay tuned for a
continued fine tuning of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Patchy low clouds already developing between KSAT and KAUS and
based on this, we will show more prevailing MVFR vs. TEMPO for the
morning hours. Radar and lightning data also show some storms west
of the Rio Grande and will continue with VCSH at DRT after 10Z. A
round of afternoon and evening convection is also expected to
develop out west along the Rio Grande and have added PROB30 group
for TSRA at DRT. We will also add PROB30 groups farther east for
the I-35 corridor with convection favored during the late
afternoon and evening hours. We`ve seen some inconsistency
regarding timing of storms and subsequent forecasts will need to
be refined based on radar and hi-res model trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              89  71  84  71 /  20  80  60  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  89  71  84  72 /  20  80  60  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     87  69  84  70 /  20  80  60  30
Burnet Muni Airport            85  68  82  69 /  20  80  50  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           87  69  89  72 /  60  60  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        88  70  82  70 /  10  80  60  30
Hondo Muni Airport             84  68  84  70 /  50  70  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        88  70  84  71 /  20  80  60  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   89  72  82  71 /  10  80  80  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       86  71  84  72 /  30  80  50  30
Stinson Muni Airport           87  70  84  72 /  30  90  60  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...Platt