Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

725
FXUS64 KLUB 241137
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
537 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 531 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

 - Light snow will continue on-and-off through today, then
   increase in coverage and intensity tonight.

 - Snow may become heavy at times overnight Saturday through
   Sunday morning.

 - Extremely cold temperatures will continue with wind chills as
   low as 15 below zero possible every morning through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

The first area of lift has moved off east of the area with weak lift
in its wake. Another short wave trough currently observed over
eastern New Mexico on water vapor imagery will track over the region
on the early morning hours on Saturday. This next short wave will
bring an increase in precipitation activity through mid-morning
Saturday. Weak short wave ridging and weak subsidence will then move
overhead late morning through the afternoon hours. The upper level
low responsible for our wintry weather was still churning off the
coast of Baja California and just now finally starting to eject
eastward. Much of the activity this evening was driven by moist
isentropic ascent and this will continue to be the case throughout
the nighttime hours. However, there will be some subtle weakening of
the isentropic lift as the short wave moves overhead. This lift will
provide the next burst of activity before the relative lull in
precipitation on Saturday afternoon.

The warm layer aloft is not expected to weaken through the night
with persistent southwest flow aloft above the arctic air mass.
Current radar imagery shows the near surface sub-freezing layer
ranging from 2500 to 3000ft around the 88D. The only thing that will
change through the night will be the temperature of the sub-freezing
layer. Current temperatures in this layer are as warm as -10C in the
southern Rolling Plains and will only continue to decrease. Values
are expected to reach as low as -15C in this layer supporting either
a sleet or snow precipitation type. Areas to the north and west of
Lubbock will see a weaker warm layer aloft or the entire column
below 0C which will support all snowfall. Precipitation rates are
not expected to be particularly intense with this overnight
activity, however, some thunder is still possible mostly for areas
off the caprock. Lifting parcels above the cold arctic air mass
yields instability values up to 100 J/kg. A few hundredths of an
inch of sleet for areas around Lubbock and points south and east.
Areas to the north and west of Lubbock may see a few tenths of an
inch of snowfall. Precipitation is expected to end from west to east
around mid-morning before picking up again late Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

The long term package will start with the continuation of wintry
precipitation Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon. An upper
trough will translate over northern Mexico towards the Texas
Panhandle during overnight Saturday before passing overhead early
Sunday morning. Good upper level lift associated with the
progression of this system will prolong precipitation into Sunday
morning. Current soundings indicate northern portions of the area
will start to see the transition from wintry mix to snow late
Saturday. For southern portions of the region, current soundings
indicate a small warm nose between 800-700mb will persist through
early Sunday continuing the wintry mix precipitation, however
chances for freezing rain will be near zero as it is so cold on the
surface, therefore expect mostly sleet and snow. Sufficient upper
lift with the progression of the trough will bring the possibility
for heavy snow early Sunday with some models indicating some
localized areas could see 1-1.5"/hr. Current snowfall totals show
northern portions could see somewhere between 7 to 8 inches while
southern portions of the CWA could see between 4 to 6 inches. The
aforementioned upper trough will continue to push east early Sunday
morning giving way to an embedded shortwave that will prolong snow
chances through Sunday afternoon. Wintry precipitation chances are
expected to taper off Sunday evening as the shortwave translates
away from the region and mostly zonal flow fills in overhead as well
as the post-frontal surface high begins to creep into the region.

Cold temperatures are expected to continue through Monday, albeit
slightly warmer than what we will see Saturday with highs in the 20s
for Sunday and upper 20s to lower 30s for Monday. Extremely cold
temperatures are expected each morning Sunday and Monday with winds
chills as low as 15 below zero possible. Following this winter
storm, conditions look to be quiet and dry with warmer, although
still below seasonal normal, through most of next week as mostly
zonal flow prevails through mid-week before shifting to the
northwest as ridging builds over western CONUS. Models indicate a
front will push through the region mid-week cooling temperatures
slightly. The end of next week looks to have a similar set up to
this weekend with an arctic cold front bringing cold temperatures
and wintry precipitation. Let`s get through this weekend first
before we discuss next weekend as this is still a week out and can
expect changes in future forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Periods of -SN will continue at all TAF sites through at least
mid-morning. A brief lull in precipitation is then likely around
midday before snow returns this afternoon. Snow is expected to
increase in coverage and intensity this evening and continue
overnight. Periods of +SN are possible after 00z tonight.
Regarding CIGs, terminals may oscillate between IFR and MVFR
through the first half of today before becoming IFR/LIFR by this
afternoon, with IFR CIGs expected to persist through the end of
this TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for TXZ021>044.

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Monday for TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30