Essex Junction, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

159
FXUS61 KBTV 260707
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
307 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 306 AM EDT Sunday...

No major changes with this forecast update as we continue to
anticipate a gradual pattern change from drier and warmer to
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms each day through the
midweek.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 306 AM EDT Sunday...

1. Showers and thunderstorms will return to the region this
week as a series of shortwaves cross the Northeast, likely resulting
in isolated to scattered heavier downpours.

2. Eventually drier air with warming temperatures arrive for
late week into early next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 306 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure is currently over Nova Scotia early this
morning, resulting in broken cloud cover flowing into northern New
York and Vermont from the west with light and variable winds at the
surface. Temperatures are expected to continue their gradual fall
towards the 50s to mid 60s this morning, featuring some isolated
valley fog. A shortwave trough will reach northern New York from the
west this afternoon, though the pre-existing drier air mass in place
and high pressure locked in to our east will keep any resulting
precipitation limited to a few showers or thunderstorms. As
temperatures increase into the upper 70s to mid 80s this afternoon,
models are indicating some modest instability (surface CAPE 500-1000
J/kg) and precipitable water values approaching 1.25-1.50 inches.
This could result in a few of the showers or storms offering briefly
heavy downpours in isolated spots, but we`ve been dry for days so
this is not expected to immediately cause issues. Then, another
mainly dry night tonight with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s is
looking likely, a low temperature range that is expected to persist
each night into the midweek.

On Monday, the shortwave will shift eastward. Temperatures will be
able to rise into upper 70s and 80s, increasing surface instability
(around 1000 J/kg) and producing more widespread showers and
thunderstorms than Sunday with 50-80% chance of precip in northern
New York and 5-50% chance of precip across Vermont, highest in the
afternoon. While we`ll lack an upper level feature, precipitable
water values may approach 1.40-1.60 inches and localized heavier
downpours could occur. Shower activity should dwindle with sunset,
though about 20-40% chance of some lingering activity in northern
New York and southern Vermont. Precipitation amounts are forecast as
high as 0.25-0.50 inches Monday and Monday night across the
Adirondacks, likely higher in isolated heavy downpours. Now through
Monday evening, the probability of reaching a total rainfall of 1
inch or more is around 25-40% at some of the higher peaks of the
Adirondacks. We`ll want to watch any place that gets consecutive
days of heavy downpours, particularly across northern New York, but
the threat is highly conditional. The Weather Prediction Center has
northern New York outside of the Champlain Valley under Marginal (at
least 5%, a 1 out of 4 scale) Risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood
guidance. As of this morning, river forecasts show some slight
rises, but nothing near bankfull or Action Stage.

Then on Tuesday, we`ll see another trough move through the region,
though deterministic global models continue to disagree on the
strength and extent of this feature. The GFS keeps the upper wave
mostly open, progressive, and aloft, occasionally closing off a
weaker upper low across southern New York and eventually developing
a coastal surface low off the mid-Atlantic by late Tuesday night.
The ICON model is in fair agreement with the GFS. The ECMWF
continues to push for a strong, closed, vertically stacked low
pressure system drifting through the Northeast Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Meanwhile, the Canadian model also favors the GFS`s open wave
on Tuesday, then starts to close and deepen the low pressure like
the ECMWF does late Tuesday night. Whichever direction we go,
showers and thunderstorms are looking increasingly likely on Tuesday
(55-95% chance precip) and Tuesday night (50-80% chance precip).
Some model solutions are projecting surface CAPE values around 1000-
1500 J/kg. Precipitable water values peak near 1.75 inches on
Tuesday, so again localized downpours will be possible in surface
convergence and upper level divergence. If the stronger closed upper
low solution verifies, we may see more widespread heavy downpours.
Overall Tuesday-Tuesday night precipitation expectations are 0.25-
1.00" across northern New York (highest amounts in St. Lawrence
County) and 0.05-0.65" across Vermont (highest amounts in southern
and south-central Vermont). Any areas that saw heavier downpours on
Sunday or Monday will need to be watched. By Tuesday, the WPC has
the Marginal (at least 5%) Risk of excessive rainfall over the
entire forecast area. Because of all these additional showers,
thunderstorms, and general moisture/clouds around, highs Tuesday
will come back down just a couple degrees, in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

On Wednesday, our main question becomes: how long does the upper
trough linger across our area? Regardless of the clear model
differences, most solutions have precipitation lingering through the
day Wednesday, 55-90% chance of showers and thunderstorms, with
highest confidence in southern portions of our area, closest to
forcing. Precipitation likely won`t be as convective as previous
days, though pwats nearing 1.20-1.75 inches are possible. After
several days of showers and thunderstorms, additional rain likely
won`t be quite as welcome. Chance of 24 hour totals at or above 1
inch Tuesday night and Wednesday alone are 20-55%, highest across
southern Vermont. Wednesday is another period that the WPC has our
entire area under Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall. Precipitation
should limit temperatures on Wednesday, reaching widespread 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A highly amplified pattern continues for the CONUS mid
to late week with anomalously strong ridge acrs the Rockies and
prevailing mid/upper lvl trof over the Great Lakes into the NE
CONUS. As initial deep/closed 7-5H cyclonic circulation slowly moves
offshore by Friday, a narrow mid/upper lvl ridge axis is progged to
impact our cwa for late week into the upcoming weekend. The
combination of cyclonic flow, lingering deep layer moisture in the
1000 to 500mb layer, along with pw values in the 1.0" to 1.25" on
Thursday wl keep us unsettled with additional showers likely. The
probability of thunder is <25%, given the moist adiabatic sounding
profiles and limited instability on Thurs. Highest pops wl be acrs
the favorable east-northeast upslope areas of central/northern VT
and northern Dacks with less acrs the downslope shadow regions.
Progged 925mb temps btwn 16-18C support highs lower 70s to near 80F
most locations on Thurs. Eventually mid/upper lvl ridge builds into
our cwa on Friday with some clearing skies and warmer temps. Progged
925mb temps warm several degrees to 20-22C, supporting highs well
into the 80s. The flow remains relatively progressive, given the
highly amplified pattern with next deep full latitude trof
approaching our cwa late Sat into Sunday with additional threat for
more showers/storms. Plenty of time to sort out the details, for now
have increasing pops and slightly cooler temps for next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...GOES-19 IR Satellite and Fog Product shows
mid/upper level clouds moving across our taf sites this morning,
but temps have cooled enough for brief IFR in mist at MSS
already. Thinking the clouds and slightly stronger winds around
500 AGL will limit fog/br development this morning, but surface
dewpoints are 3 to 5 degrees higher with little temp/dewpoint
spread at SLK. So a brief 20 to 30 minute window of IFR is
possible at SLK and MPV near sunrise, but feel probability of 1
hour or more is <15% at this time. Otherwise, mostly a wind taf
with light trrn driven winds become south/southwest 4 to 8 knots
by 15z, along with intervals of mid/upper level clouds.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Storm/Taber
AVIATION...Taber