Charles Town, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

264
FXUS61 KLWX 060859
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
359 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly return over the weekend before a
strong cold front tracks across the region Sunday evening.
Canadian high pressure will build in early next week while a
potential wave of low pressure passes by to the south. Another
clipper-like system tracks across the area by the middle of
next week. A secondary cold front moves through by Thursday
before high pressure slowly approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The 08Z/3 AM surface analysis places a cold front across the
Gulf Stream back across the Florida Panhandle. Off to the west,
a series of frontal systems loom over the Upper Midwest.
Sandwiched in between these features is a weak area of high
pressure across the Mid-Atlantic region. Weak pressure gradients
have allowed winds to go mainly calm.

Where aircraft soundings are available early this morning, low-
level profiles remain saturated to around 850-mb. With
temperatures near to below freezing in this column, areas of
freezing drizzle have persisted around the D.C. and Baltimore
metros. Any snow threat has ended given the degree of dry air
above 850-mb where ice crystal growth would be required. Given
the freezing drizzle threat, opted to extend the Winter Weather
Advisories until 7 AM mainly along and east of U.S. 15.
Additionally, a similar setup is being observed over Garrett and
western Grant counties. As such, Winter Weather Advisories are
also in place through 7 AM this morning.

Expect temperatures to hold steady in the upper 20s to low 30s
this morning, all underneath a thick area of low stratus. Given
it is only 2 weeks until the Winter Solstice, solar insolation
angles are fairly low this time of year. Thus, it may take until
the lunch hour to mix out these low clouds. A low-amplitude
shortwave races across the region this afternoon/evening. This
should help shift the pattern allowing for some late day
sunshine over portions of the area. Forecast high temperatures
will rise into the low/mid 40s, with upper 20s to 30s across the
mountains.

While much of the region stays dry as this shortwave passes by,
some upslope aided showers are possible across portions of the
Alleghenies. Thermal profiles would support a mixed wintry
precipitation event. However, given limited moisture, any
impacts should be minimal. Heading into the night, some clouds
linger overhead with lows in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An Arctic boundary currently analyzed over the upper Great
Lakes back across the northern Rockies looms large toward the
end of the weekend. This ushers in another pattern shift heading
into the upcoming work week. However, Sunday largely brings
tranquil weather to the region. Weak high pressure remains
nearby with high temperatures remaining fairly close to today`s
readings. The forecast of low/mid 40s is around 4 to 8 degrees
below climatology for early December standards.

The atmosphere gradually moistens ahead of the next frontal
system. This will support an increase in cloud cover throughout
the day. Any chances of precipitation are locked over the
Alleghenies which is to be expected given very low Froude number
(<0.50). This variable highlights the ability for precipitation
to spillover to the east. Perhaps a quick inch is possible
along and west of the Alleghenies. However, the short duration
and less than optimal moisture content would limit the
potential.

The focus then shifts over to the blustery post-frontal west-
northwesterly winds on Sunday night. This comes with low
temperatures again in the 20s, with mid/upper teens in the
mountains. Winds have trended down relative to yesterday`s
guidance with gusts up to around 15 to 25 mph, locally a bit
higher across the terrain. A cold advection regime ushers in
another shot of modified Arctic air to the region. Forecast
highs will be in the 30s (20s for the mountains). The added wind
factor should lower wind chills into the single digits over
mountain locales.

As the dome of high pressure sets up over New England, will need
to monitor a quick moving shortwave that tracks across the
Tennessee Valley toward the Virginia Tidewater region. As the
associated lift crosses the renewed cold air mass, some light
snow potential again looms, particularly near I-64. Trends will
continue to be monitored. The anticyclone center moves overhead
on Monday night making for a very cold night. Forecast lows are
likely to be in the teens, with some spotty low 20s in the
urbanized hubs and closer to the Chesapeake Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term period will be dominated by a potent trough over
eastern Canada, which will repeatedly throw shortwaves across the
region through the end of next week.

For Tuesday, still expecting temperatures to be below average for
this time of year, but winds turn out of the south and will at least
have them a few degrees warmer than Monday. Expect highs in the
upper 30s for most and near freezing on the ridges. Winds will gust
to around 20 mph though, so it still won`t feel very pleasant out.

Wednesday through the end of next week will bring about several
chances for some precipitation to the region. Lots of uncertainty
with when and how much however, as well as with the exact type of
precipitation. Generally speaking though, Wednesday`s system should
be warm enough for rain outside of the mountains. However, the
system that may impact the region towards the end of the week may
have more cold air to work with. Won`t delve into details at this
time, as it is a very complex upper-level pattern with lots of
moving parts in the northern and southern branches of the jet
stream. It is important to note that this period could also remain
entirely dry as well, so nothing is set in stone yet at this point.
Stay tuned to the latest forecast for more details as we get a
little closer and have the pieces in place over the CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The combination of a little bit of snowpack with light winds
and saturated low-levels is maintaining widespread IFR to LIFR
restrictions. These low ceilings are coupled with a light mix
of snow and freezing rain currently near the Baltimore
terminals. Any precipitation chances should wind down in the
next couple of hours as this activity pushes northeastward.
However, the low stratus stick around throughout the morning
with any improvements not coming until the early afternoon.
Winds remain light with VFR conditions into the evening and
night.

VFR conditions continue into Sunday and Monday as well, albeit
with a pattern shift. An Arctic boundary crosses the the area
Sunday evening leading to a return of blustery west-
northwesterly winds. Winds become northerly on Monday as high
pressure builds over New England. A wave passes by to the south
could bring light snow to central Virginia, but confidence is
low at this time.

A brief lull in precipitation chances is expected on Tuesday,
between a pair of weather systems, which will lead to VFR
conditions. Also expect winds out of the south around 5 to 10 knots,
gusting to 20 knots at times.

Clouds increase in coverage overnight Tuesday into Wednesday as a
clipper low approaches from our NW. Some showers are possible,
potentially leading to some restrictions later in the day on
Wednesday. Winds will again be out of the S to SSW, but about 5
knots higher than Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
With a frontal system over the Gulf Stream and additional
boundaries back over the Midwest, the local area is dominated by
weak high pressure, Light gradients will keep wind gusts under
10 knots through much of the weekend. A much stronger cold front
pushes across the waters by Sunday night. Winds become
northwesterly before shifting to northerly on Monday. Small
Craft Advisories will be needed late Sunday night through most
of Monday. A few gales are not out of the question for the more
southern waters.

Winds turn southerly and increase Tuesday and Wednesday. Small Craft
conditions are likely by late Tuesday and continuing through
Wednesday in southerly channeling. A few showers are also possible
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for DCZ001.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MDZ011-
     013-014-016>018-503>506-508>510.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for VAZ050-
     051-053>057-502-506-526-527.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for WVZ501.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...BRO/CJL
MARINE...BRO/CJL