South Charleston, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

154
FXUS61 KRLX 260909
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
509 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Risk for flash flooding increasing Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding are
possible Tuesday into Wednesday across much of the region.

2.) A cold front will bring drier and cooler air to the region
Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A warm front will push northward across the region today and
tonight, providing showers and possibly thunderstorms. The big
question is how much energy can build up, or will clouds keep
too much energy from building. With grounds already saturated,
if energy can build up, then some localized flash flooding would
be possible.

With the frontal boundary across northern portions of the area
or just north of the area for Wednesday, flash flooding
concerns increase dramatically. First of all, if the front
remains across the region it could serve as a focusing
mechanism for storms. Secondly, models are showing significant
energy building south of the front for the afternoon hours.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

A cold front will push south of the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. This will bring drier air behind the front Thursday,
continuing for Friday, with a break from the precipitation.

A moisture starved reinforcing front will push through on
Saturday. Once again most of the area will remain dry, with the
dry weather continuing on Sunday and most likely into the next
work week.

With the drier air behind these fronts, nighttime temperatures
will be considerably cooler, with readings generally in the 50s,
with some cooler locations dipping into the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Patchy dense fog will gradually dissipate this morning. A warm
front will return northward today, providing chances of showers
with possible thunderstorms. By mid afternoon into this evening,
most locations not getting precipitation should be VFR.
Northeastern West Virginia could see some fog late tonight if
there are any breaks in the clouds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog lifting could vary. Timing
and intensity of showers and thunderstorms today could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 05/26/26
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Periodic IFR restrictions are possible in any heavier
showers and thunderstorms and subsequent overnight fog/stratus
through Wednesday night/early Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...RPY