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U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 260422
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO
THE HARNEY BASIN...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN
MONTANA...
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain in place across the western CONUS today,
with strong mid-level flow cresting the ridge across the West Coast
into the northern Rockies. A dry and deep boundary layer will
encourage downward mixing of this stronger flow aloft along the
periphery of the ridge by afternoon peak heating. A broad area of at
least 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent
RH will overspread portions of the western Great Basin into northern
High Plains, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels.
Guidance consensus also depicts locally stronger winds across
portions of northern Montana, and parts of the northern Sierra into
the Harney Basin, justifying the continuation of Critical
highlights.
Another day of scattered, potentially high-based thunderstorms are
expected across portions of southern Montana. However, given less
receptive fuels in this area, especially with some accumulated
rainfall from the prior day's storms, it is unclear how efficient
lightning-induced ignitions will be. Therefore, isolated dry
thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 07/26/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 260430
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist over the western CONUS tomorrow (Monday).
However, upper flow pivoting around the ridge is expected to be
weaker compared to Day 1 (today). Therefore, wildfire-spread
concerns are expected to be overall milder. Nonetheless, effective
downward momentum transport of mid-level flow should occur along the
northern Sierra into portions of the northern Rockies given a deep
and well-mixed boundary layer. The latest guidance consensus depicts
widespread southwesterly surface winds exceeding 15 mph amid 20
percent RH for at least a few hours, warranting Elevated highlights
given dry fuels.
..Squitieri.. 07/26/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 252101
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will continue to impinge of the Pacific
Northwest with the main upper low/trough remaining offshore.
However, mid-level shortwave troughs will occasionally rotate
through the southwest flow aloft. An upper high will reside over the
southern High Plains/vicinity before slowly shifting back to the
west with upper-level ridging forecast to build over much of the
West late in the outlook period. Daily monsoonal thunderstorms
remain likely across the Four Corners region, but a slight drying
trend is possible.
...Northwestern US...
Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected on Day 3/Monday
across portions of northwestern US. If stronger flow aloft remains
over enough of this region and deeper mixing becomes more likely
across a broader area, an expansion of 40% probabilities will be
warranted. Somewhat weaker upper-level flow beyond Day 3/Monday and
overall forecast uncertainty regarding the interplay of the
upper-level troughing in the Pacific Northwest/vicinity and the
upper-level ridge over the Plains and much of the Intermountain West
has precluded additional critical probabilities through Day
6/Thursday. Extended guidance and cluster analysis exhibits the
potential for the offshore troughing to move inland across the
Pacific Northwest, once again bringing dry and breezy conditions to
the region next weekend. Critical probabilities will be withheld
until predictability increases, but may be needed in future outlook
cycles as the upper pattern is better resolved.
...Southern High Plains...
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely to develop across
portions of the southern High Plains through the workweek. Recent
fuel intel implies the environment is still quite mixed, with some
localized areas more receptive than others. Aforementioned
meteorological conditions for several consecutive days will likely
contribute to further drying the fuelscape; trends will be monitored
closely for the inclusion of probabilities in future outlooks.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/25/2026
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