Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
136 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN A SMALL PART
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

Maintained a small part of the inherited Marginal Risk area across
areas near the Texas Coast. Latest guidance suggests that ongoing
convection across the Texas Hill Country will migrate/propagate
east-southeastward toward the Texas Coast area (Victoria to
Houston) in the 12-16Z timeframe. Point forecast soundings suggest
that the best combo of instability/moisture will reside in that
general area before convection moves though. Surface-based storms
could exhibit right-moving behavior due to supercellular wind
profiles aloft, with slow movement (around 15-20 knots) within a
moist environment (1.5+ inch PW), supporting efficient rain
processes and the potential for local 2-3 inch/hr rain rates. The
spatiotemporal extent of this risk is limited, with convection
either weakening or moving offshore by around midday. Isolated
flash flooding is expected primarily in the morning hours based on
this scenario.

Farther northeast, Marginal was removed from southwestern
Louisiana. Convection should be more elevated in nature and may
lose its organization some with eastward extent due to weaker
buoyancy and displacement from better mid/upper forcing upstream.
While local/minor runoff issues cannot be completely ruled out,
decided to focus the Marginal/5% risk probs farther southwest
where the better overall environment for flash flooding will
reside.

Cook


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt