Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu May 28 2026 - 12Z Fri May 29 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

...Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley...

Breakdown of the persistent pattern for areas east of the
Continental Divide will lead to weaker steering flow, but still
enough moisture, lingering boundaries, and remnant mid-level
vorticity to spur up bouts of scattered convection all across parts
of the Central and Southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley.
This setup is a far cry from what we've experienced the past
several days, so the prospects of widespread flash flooding are
much lower comparatively. However, environmental conditions and
deep moisture presence still remain favorable along the northern
periphery of the trough lingering across east TX which places the
best opportunity for convective episodes to be located over the
aforementioned areas. Ensemble QPF footprint is most notable across
the Central Gulf coast and upper TX coastal plain, likely in part
to the positioning of the trough and the fact the most prevalent
theta_E is situated along the immediate Gulf. It's a period to
monitor for any small scale features that could enhance convective
potential further, but for now, a broad MRGL exists to cover for
the threat.

...Florida...

Active sea breeze pattern with weakening steering flow will lead to
a period of heavy rainfall across the southeast FL coast on
Thursday afternoon. Consensus within guidance is for an active
period between 18-00z Thu/Fri that would allow for heavy convection
with slow forward propagations to impact the South Florida metro
corridor from West Palm Beach down to Miami. Globals and regional
guidance even have some 2+" totals already in the output, and
that's before the CAM's even have a depiction. Typically, this is a
sign for heavy rainfall prospects capable of flash flooding,
especially when you consider the PWATs running +1 to +2 deviations
across that area of the Peninsula. A MRGL risk remains for that
urban corridor of southeastern FL.

Kleebauer

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt